Technically gold seems to be bearish.
See the reasons in the chart above.
Just pay attention to the NFP on Friday since it has big impact on gold.
Disclaimer On.
GG - 2014.02.06
Kamis, 06 Februari 2014
Forecast - 2014.02.06
Technically gold seems to be bearish.
See the reasons in the chart above.
Just pay attention to the NFP on Friday since it has big impact on gold.
Disclaimer On.
GG - 2014.02.06
Sabtu, 30 November 2013
Forecast - 2013.11.30
A CONTRADICTION
Gold is making a confusing situation for me to guess where it is going to head.
In H1 chart, it is obvious that 1255 is a resistance area which the current price probably will make Three Tops pattern if it can't go through higher. Just check the H1 chart below.
But then, there are some contradictory clues, which are seen in the Daily chart below:
From the daily chart, there are at least 3 clues that contradicts the H1 chart which is probably making Three Tops pattern (sign of bearish). There are:
1. Price already broke the daily resistance
2. There is a Higher Low, indicates that probably gold is making a new path to the upside
3. My daily WPR and RSI are probably making a golden cross, which I usually use in daily chart as a confirmation for an uptrend.
Conclusion:
I prefer to guess the bear is not finish yet, since there is no support from the fundamental for the bull.
As long as the price not making a Higher High, which is breaking above 1258, I still hold for the bear.
We'll see soon if my guess is correct or wrong.
GG - 2013.11.30
Gold is making a confusing situation for me to guess where it is going to head.
In H1 chart, it is obvious that 1255 is a resistance area which the current price probably will make Three Tops pattern if it can't go through higher. Just check the H1 chart below.
But then, there are some contradictory clues, which are seen in the Daily chart below:
From the daily chart, there are at least 3 clues that contradicts the H1 chart which is probably making Three Tops pattern (sign of bearish). There are:
1. Price already broke the daily resistance
2. There is a Higher Low, indicates that probably gold is making a new path to the upside
3. My daily WPR and RSI are probably making a golden cross, which I usually use in daily chart as a confirmation for an uptrend.
Conclusion:
I prefer to guess the bear is not finish yet, since there is no support from the fundamental for the bull.
As long as the price not making a Higher High, which is breaking above 1258, I still hold for the bear.
We'll see soon if my guess is correct or wrong.
GG - 2013.11.30
Rabu, 27 November 2013
Personal Note - The Result
This is the result of last prediction.
Total gain = 2 positions @ 1.005 pips
GG - 2013 11 27
Forecast - 2013.11.27
From daily chart, there is an obvious downtrend path with the perfect R/S as the boundary.
But it is also clearly seen that the bearish always be rejected by the support 1 line.
There is 2 alternatives in my view.
Alt 1, the bear wins the fight. In this case, gold must break Support 1 line and then it might continue follow the downtrend path.
Alt 2, gold breaks the resistance and makes a new uptrend path. In this case, gold must break the resistance line first. The question is, will there be enough power to support the bull? I doubt it.
Looking the fundamental base nowadays, the most likely to happen, at least from my view, is that gold will go once more to around resistance level and then go back down.
Let's see the hourly chart below.
I think gold will bounce back to the resistance area before trying to go lower since there is a support line (Support 1) that seems to be respected by the market and also the oversold condition at the moment.
But I really doubt that gold can go further up since the fundamental situation seems does not support it.
So, in this moment, I guess the best trade is to have short around the resistance area as seen in the H1 chart.
Of course as usual, get the disclaimer on.
Good luck....
GG - 2013 11 27
Rabu, 06 November 2013
Forecast - 2013.11.06
ANOTHER DIVERGENCE...!!!
At this moment we have a bullish divergence. William Percent Range and MACD indicators, both show bullish divergence.
The last time bearish divergence existed, it worked. Will it work now???
We will see soon.
AT SUPPORT LINES???
Gold goes back to its previous path, or from another point of view, it might be a beginning of a new path. Who cares?
But wait a minute, look closely!
From both points of view, the price might be near a support level. Technically it has bigger opportunity to move away from the support, right? Hahaha.... that's only an assumption. No one knows where will it go.
Let's take a closer look of the daily chart.
Yes, it might form many higher highs and lows from this view.
It also performs a Morning Star and (almost certain) Bullish Engulfing.
Ok then, I think gold has more chance to go up than down.
To what level? I suppose the key area would be the area between the blue and red resistances. Will it break that area or will it bounce back down? Let's wait and see....
Uhmm, wait a second. There will be Advanced GDP and NFP soon. I think it will have big influence of gold price. Take care and have SL and MM as your safety device. Have a nice trading.
GG - 2013.11.06
PS: Disclaimer always on!!!
At this moment we have a bullish divergence. William Percent Range and MACD indicators, both show bullish divergence.
The last time bearish divergence existed, it worked. Will it work now???
We will see soon.
AT SUPPORT LINES???
Gold goes back to its previous path, or from another point of view, it might be a beginning of a new path. Who cares?
But wait a minute, look closely!
From both points of view, the price might be near a support level. Technically it has bigger opportunity to move away from the support, right? Hahaha.... that's only an assumption. No one knows where will it go.
Let's take a closer look of the daily chart.
Yes, it might form many higher highs and lows from this view.
It also performs a Morning Star and (almost certain) Bullish Engulfing.
Ok then, I think gold has more chance to go up than down.
To what level? I suppose the key area would be the area between the blue and red resistances. Will it break that area or will it bounce back down? Let's wait and see....
Uhmm, wait a second. There will be Advanced GDP and NFP soon. I think it will have big influence of gold price. Take care and have SL and MM as your safety device. Have a nice trading.
GG - 2013.11.06
PS: Disclaimer always on!!!
Jumat, 01 November 2013
Selasa, 29 Oktober 2013
Forecast - 2013.10.29
Gold turned out not going down as I thought. But it also doesn't go up. It seems that the market is still waiting for some confirmation or significant reasons to move the price. I think the market mover will be the FOMC Statement on next Wednesday.
For this moment, this is my sight for Gold.
From the daily chart above, we can see that for the last 2 days, gold has been trying to break the daily resistance but it fail. It shows that the bull power is still not strong enough to push the market higher. Personally, I think that the upside price movement for this last 2 days is more caused by the bad result of Pending Home Sales news.
It was (Actual Forecast Previous) = -5.6% 0.5% -1.6%
Let's zoom in...
From a bigger look of the same daily chart, we can see that for the last 2 days, gold has actually been trying to break the daily resistance but it seems that the power is not big enough. It makes the tails slightly over the resistance and make the body under it. It is really obvious the market is reluctant to move the price to any direction.
From my sight, I think it also means that more likely gold will go downside. This is because there are 2 resistances which in my opinion are strong enough since both resistances has never been broken before.
Let's see a closer look
From the H4 chart above, it's clearly that gold had violated the support and tried to go back into its uptrend channel but then it failed. We can see very clear that the Green Resistance that holds gold from making higher price recently. This is for me a sign that the power of bull is diminishing. But it also gives a clue that the bear is reluctant to take over the power.
Resumee:
Technically, I see that gold more likely will have a downside move because gold has 2 strong resistances at this level of price.
But, considering that FOMC Statement will be announce on Wednesday, there is a big chance that bull power will be back in the market very sudden. Why? because I have a strong feeling that the Fed will not announce any significant change of its policy. It includes the postpone of tapering. If there's no tapering, than it gives gold more advantage and push it higher. But this is only guessing. Don't trade just on it. Do your analysis.
GG - 2013.10.29
For this moment, this is my sight for Gold.
From the daily chart above, we can see that for the last 2 days, gold has been trying to break the daily resistance but it fail. It shows that the bull power is still not strong enough to push the market higher. Personally, I think that the upside price movement for this last 2 days is more caused by the bad result of Pending Home Sales news.
It was (Actual Forecast Previous) = -5.6% 0.5% -1.6%
Let's zoom in...
From a bigger look of the same daily chart, we can see that for the last 2 days, gold has actually been trying to break the daily resistance but it seems that the power is not big enough. It makes the tails slightly over the resistance and make the body under it. It is really obvious the market is reluctant to move the price to any direction.
From my sight, I think it also means that more likely gold will go downside. This is because there are 2 resistances which in my opinion are strong enough since both resistances has never been broken before.
Let's see a closer look
From the H4 chart above, it's clearly that gold had violated the support and tried to go back into its uptrend channel but then it failed. We can see very clear that the Green Resistance that holds gold from making higher price recently. This is for me a sign that the power of bull is diminishing. But it also gives a clue that the bear is reluctant to take over the power.
Resumee:
Technically, I see that gold more likely will have a downside move because gold has 2 strong resistances at this level of price.
But, considering that FOMC Statement will be announce on Wednesday, there is a big chance that bull power will be back in the market very sudden. Why? because I have a strong feeling that the Fed will not announce any significant change of its policy. It includes the postpone of tapering. If there's no tapering, than it gives gold more advantage and push it higher. But this is only guessing. Don't trade just on it. Do your analysis.
GG - 2013.10.29
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