Gold Technical Analysis - 2012.10.30

This is my gold analysis for today.
From the 4H chart we can see a very clear uptrend from the end of August until mid of September. Then gold made a sideway move that confirmed by a break of its uptrend around Sep 21.
In that sideway move, I noted 3 times gold tried to break upside but it failed. And once it made a false downside breakout on Sep 26. Honestly, at the time gold pull back to the upside that quickly, I thought it would break much higher and continue go to more than 1800. But it didn't. It just made a new high for 2012 around 1795.85.

Then gold made a downtrend with a confirmation of breaking the sideway area on Monday Oct 15.
At that time I expected gold would go at most to 1690-1700 area. In this area gold had a strong support of 38,2% Fibo, psychology support, and a complete cup n handel pattern.
Now as we can see from the chart, gold is trying to start breaking its downtrend move by making a sideway.
Is it a confirmation of a sideway or a downtrend breaking?
Maybe it's to early to tell because we need some more time to really confirm the move.

But there are many things come into my consideration:
1) It's almost November, a bullish seasonal month of gold for 30 years.
2) Gold has been already in 1698-1718 area since Oct 23, which means almost 2 weeks. And as long as I see it now, the longer it stays in an area, the bigger the chance of making reversal.
3) US Election. If Obama wins, I'm almost sure gold will be going up. But if Romney wins, there is a possibility it will go down a little more.

That's all what I can say now about gold for the short term.
Of course as I always say, don't take it RAW. Use your own consideration on trading.

Happy profitable trading....

GG 2012.10.30

Why I Believe Gold is Going Up - Technical Analysis (part1)

In the above chart (source: www.thegoldandoilguy.com) we can see that gold now is forming a very similar pattern back in 2008, just before a major rally happened.
Please note that the above chart is weekly, so it may take some weeks or months for gold to really have a real breakout. And also there is still a possibility gold will form a solid base for it before jumping, which means gold still has probability to have more correction to 1690-1700 area or the worst (my opinion) 1650 area before it make the big rally to (maybe) more than its all time high @1920. I'm expecting gold will be more than $2.000 in 2013.

And since Epsilo (a member in Forex Factory) has posted before my post, I just want to emphasize that we are entering November which is a bullish month of gold seasonal for 30 years. See the chart below.

The above just only 2 logic reasons why I said gold must go up in medium to long term. I still have plenty of reasons and data that make me really believe gold is "almost impossible" of  going back to its 2008 price (just before the crisis). Despite of going lower, it will surprise all of us with it up-moves....
I will write down my other reasons later when I have time for it. ASAP I hope....

As I always say, everything can happen because as we know, the market is always dynamic.
So, just believe your own analysis to make the decision. The rest are only sounds in the wind...
It's your call to listen to or even trust them, or just to ignore it at once.....

Happy trading everyone....

R/S on 24 Oct 2012

Today gold moves in a narrow range and forming a flag pattern (triangle). I suppose this is all because the market is waiting for FOMC statement few hours from now. But whatever the announcement is, gold will break this pattern and moves on whether it is continuing to the downside or pull back to the upside. From what we have here, it is not a position to make an entry. I prefer wait and see until FOMC.

Another Sample of R/S Gold Price on 22-23 Oct 2012

  
This is another sample of gold price which form a clear trend pattern. This pattern is really nice to make some profit.
Gold often makes this kind of movement whenever there is no strong-impact-news.
I usually wait for the gold movement to form 3 clear "bottoms" and 3 clear "tops" that I can draw the line and then take a position on 4th "bottom" or "top" with TP at its next "bottom" or "top"

This is the gold price ranging on 22-23 Oct 2012.











Have a nice profitable trading....

GG, 2012-10-23

My Trading Style: Support - Resistance, Contoh Kasus

Harga Emas  di tanggal 11 Oktober 2012 - 12 Oktober 2012


Banyak orang bertanya-tanya bagaimana saya melakukan trading. Setiap kali saya menjawab bahwa saya sudah tidak lagi memakai technical yang rumit, maka mereka banyak yang tidak percaya dan menganggap saya tidak mau mengatakan yang sebenarnya. Di sini akan saya berikan contoh nyata dari pergerakan harga emas di tanggal 11-12 Oktober 2012.
Dalam beberapa kali postingan saya, saya selalu menyebutkan bahwa saya memakai chart dengan time frame 5 menit (M5). Saya juga selalu mengatakan bahwa saya adalah seorang trader dengan tipe scalper, walaupun sering juga saya menahan posisi saya sampai beberapa hari lamanya, namun umumnya saya adalah seorang trader yang menyukai speed yang tinggi dalam trading saya.
Dari contoh grafik di atas, dapat anda lihat bahwa pergerakan emas dari tanggal 11 Oktober malam (GMT +7) sampai dengan sekitar jam 16 sore tanggal 12 Oktober 2012, membuat pergerakan sideways di sekitar range 1767,5 - 1770,5.
(Perhatikan bahwa saya membuat garis support di sekitar 1767,5 dan garis resistance di sekitar 1770,5). Dalam trading style yang saya lakukan, apabila garis Resistance dan Support (R/S) sudah bisa saya tentukan, maka saya mulai mengambil posisi, yaitu dengan melakukan BUY di sekitar garis support dan segera menutup posisi di sekitar garis Resistance, demikian juga sebaliknya.
Dari pengalaman saya selama ini, pergerakan harga emas sangat sering seperti ini, terutama di saat-saat tidak adanya news.

Ada yang bertanya, koq rangenya sempit banget?
Ya, untuk scalping kita tidak perlu membutuhkan range yang besar. Yang kita kejar adalah jumlah trading. Dalam contoh diatas, range 1770,5 - 1767,5 = 3. Bila dipotong dengan spread 0,6 maka masih ada 2,4.
Dengan contoh account minilot, bila kita membuka posisi sebesar 1 lot (leverage 1:10) saja, maka itu berarti kita akan mendapat keuntungan 2,4 x $10 = $24. Apabila modal di account minilot tersebut hanya sebesar $1.000 maka itu berarti sudah mendapat keuntungan sebesar 24/1000 x 100% = 2,4%.
Apabila dalam sehari kita bisa melakukan hal tersebut 4 kali saja, maka itu berarti keuntungan hampir 10% dalam 1 hari. Saya rasa itu adalah sebuah tingkat keuntungan yang sudah sangat tinggi.

Bagi anda yang ingin mencoba gaya trading saya, ada beberapa hal yang mungkin perlu anda perhatikan:
1. Hati-hati dalam memutuskan garis R/S anda. Jangan terlalu tergesa-gesa untuk menyimpulkan bahwa harga sudah membentuk R/S. Sebaiknya biarkan pergerakan harga berulang sampai 3 kali bolak-balik di batas yang sama sehingga kita bisa lebih yakin bahwa range untuk daerah R/S sudah terbentuk. Jangan takut terlambat. Umumnya emas akan berulangkali bolak-balik dalam range tersebut.
2. Hati-hati untuk melakukan open posisi. Harga akan berulang di daerah R/S beberapa kali namun tidak selamanya. Saya pribadi biasanya akan mengambil posisi di pengulangan yang ke-4 dan ke-5 saja dan menunggu emas membentuk R/S baru lagi.
3. Jangan membuka posisi di sekitar waktu keluarnya news, apalagi yang impactnya besar karena akan mengacaukan range R/S anda.
4. Jangan membuka posisi mendekati waktu pembukaan pasar London atau New York, karena umumnya harga bisa bergerak melebihi R/S anda.
5. Dan jangan lupa, terapkan risk management yang ketat. Ingat, walaupun metode yang kita lakukan sama, namun anda dan saya tetap mempunyai perbedaan dalam karakter dan penanganan masalah terutama ketika posisi yang kita buka dalam keadaan floating loss.
6. Berlatihlah dengan demo account lebih dahulu dan ketika anda sudah berhasil mendapatkan laba secara konsisten dalam beberapa bulan, maka barulah terjun dengan uang yang real.

Happy profitabe trading

Gold-god

Level Trader Forex

Saya menemukan satu tulisan yang bagus untuk dibaca oleh para trader.
Tulisan itu menggambarkan dengan baik tentang perkembangan para trader mulai dari awal sampai menjadi trader yang sejati. Saya sangat merekomendasikan anda untuk meluangkan waktu membaca sejenak dan merefleksikannya pada diri anda masing-masing.
Untuk menjaga keaslian tulisan dan orisinalitasnya, maka saya masukan disini link asli nya

Silakan klik
http://indrafx.wordpress.com/

Buat pemilik web tersebut, mohon maaf, saya berusaha mencari cara untuk mengontak anda tetapi tidak ada di dalam web anda sehingga saya tidak dapat meminta ijin sebelumnya untuk mempublikasikan dalam blog ini.
Namun dengan asumsi bahwa tulisan anda dapat dibuka oleh umum (tanpa perlu login atau membutuhkan password), maka saya berasumsi bahwa tulisan tersebut boleh disebarkan.
Terima kasih atas tulisan yang begitu indah dari anda.

Pengertian Nilai Tukar

Pada dasarnya perdagangan di dunia forex ataupun komoditi adalah perdagangan antara 2 mata uang atau komoditas yang saling berlawanan.
Sebagai contoh misalnya EURUSD adalah nilai tukar antara mata uang Euro terhadap Dolar Amerika, GBPUSD adalah nilai tukar antara Pounsterling terhadap Dolar Amerika, demikian juga dengan Emas yang biasanya diberi singkatan XAUUSD yaitu berarti nilai tukar antara Emas (dalam satuan troy ounce) terhadap Dolar Amerika.(XAU berasal dari kode kimia emas yaitu AU = Aurum, tambahan tanda X di awal melambangkan bahwa emas bukanlah satuan mata uang. Seluruh kode ISO selalu memakai 3 digit)
Hubungan yang harus kita mengerti adalah bahwa kode yang disebut duluan selalu bernilai satu satuan dan yang disebut belakangan adalah yang menjadi nilai tukarnya.
Sebagai contoh, apabila ada yang menyebutkan bahwa Euro saat ini 1.29 maka itu berarti bahwa untuk setiap satu EURO kita bisa menukarkannya dengan 1,29 DOLAR AMERIKA. Ingat bahwa standar ISO yang digunakan untuk pasangan mata uang ini adalah EURUSD, EUR disebut lebih awal, USD disebut belakangan.
Contoh lain, bila anda mendengar harga emas saat ini $1764,5. Maka sesuai dengan standar ISO yang dipakai di perdagangan internasional yaitu XAUUSD, setiap kita menukarkan satu troy ounce EMAS maka kita akan mendapatkan 1.764,5 DOLAR AMERIKA.

Setelah anda mengerti konsep ini maka kita akan mencoba memahami mengapa ketika terjadi suatu perubahan keadaan ekonomi di suatu negara maka akan mempengaruhi mata uang lain secara luas. Terutama apabila perubahan keadaan ekonomi itu menimpa negara-negara yang memiliki mata uang utama.
Sebagai contoh misalnya, apabila di Eropa ada sebuah kebijakan yang menyebabkan nilai Euro melemah, maka secara otomatis nilai USD sebagai pasangan Euro akan menguat. Mungkin kebijakan tersebut tidak ada hubungannya dengan nilai emas, tetapi seperti yang telah kita ketahui, USD juga sebagai pasangan nilai tukar Emas. Maka ketika USD menguat, secara otomatis nilai Emas juga akan melemah. Di mata uang lain juga berlaku hal yang sama, ketika USD menguat maka ada kemungkinan pelemahan mata uang negara lain, misalnya GBP, karena USD juga merupakan pasangan dari GBP. Namun umumnya pelemahan atau penguatan tersebut tidaklah sebesar yang terjadi di negara yang bersangkutan.


Itulah alasannya mengapa kejadian di suatu negara, terutama negara-negara dengan mata uang utama, selalu dimonitor oleh para trader.

Semoga bermanfaat.

My Trading Style

This writing is what I promised to some “buddies” who want to know how I’m doing my trades.

Before you read this, please keep in mind that I am only HUMAN, though my username contains “god” but I assure you I’m just as human as you :)

So, as long as I’m making mistakes too, I really don’t want to show off or trump up anything. All I wanna do is just sharing my own experience in trading gold simply because I can be what I am now because once in my life, there was somebody who shared his own experience to me too.

Now we begin,

I begun my margin trading years ago and to be honest, I was not a successful trader with all those call margins and thousands dollars of losses. I have traded various market and commodities, from TRB (Tokyo Red Bean) to HSI (Hangseng), from Cable to JPY. Nothing worked for me. Until someday, seeing me in front of the chart, my brother in law told me why I didn’t trade gold since its price had been rising up and became the most profitable instrument for his friend.

So, I decided to give it a try. At last, from January 2011 until now, I’ve been trading gold only since it is profitable for me too.

My style in trading gold is very simple. I don’t use complicated technicals anymore, just a simple way to define support / resistance and a very strict discipline to open positions in the market.

Steps to trade my style:

1.      Define the support/resistance (S/R) level from 5M, 30M, and 1H at most. Almost not necessary to use daily chart or longer time frames as I am an intraday trader / scalper.

2.      The entry or open position (I prefer BUY, but it depends on main trend) is whenever price almost touches the support level. The key is patience to wait the moment and not to be greedy, just put only a little at a time and always prepare for averaging.

3.      The exit point is just before it touches the next resistance level.

4.      In case of the price moves to the other side, buy more positions before it touches lower support level for averaging my BEP.

5.      Sometimes I use volume analysis and RSI (14) weighted to confirm the entry point.

6.      I always put Stop Loss when having SELL positions but almost never use it when holding BUYs. But I have to remind that it really depends on the strength of your margin.

Important things to remember:

1.      Before making an entry, first make sure that the price has already slowed down and stuck in 5M chart. If the movement of the price is still strong downside (in bullish situation and vice versa), do not enter even though it touches support level. Usually when price movement is still strong, it will break that support. Remember, this is my self-defined support, not conventional one.

2.      I can open 5 – 10 positions every day. Begin usually with a small lot and averaging with same or bigger lot. The distance between each open position depends, mostly each $5 to $15 or every support area I already defined.

3.      The STRENGTH of my margin is CRUCIAL. In this case, I do a strict risk management by keeping my margin being able to hold the price up to about $150 down with all my open positions. (Remember, this is only for BUYING positions, for SELL position I always use Stop Loss). I always count my margin each time I open a position. So when it reaches my margin strength limit, I will stop averaging and hold positions. I think $150 for endurance is quite enough these days.

4.      Never chase the price if it’s already too late to enter the market. Better waiting rather than losing. When it begins correction, then I’ll take the position.

5.      Always watch fundamental / strong impact news, since this news has strong influence in gold trading when it comes out. But please be wise. News and Opinion looks the same but it totally has different effects. Ignore opinions but pay attention to news. One of the minus points about Forex Factory is that it posts many opinions that sometimes very bias.

6.      The keys of the success are the patience to wait discounted entry point, strict risk management, and disciplines, and of course, self-experiences.

I have opened an account that I link to trade explorer at FF. This is a small account with just $1.200 initial capital. I made this account exclusively for FF Trade Explorer to prove that my trading style will work out and that trading with limited capital can be profitable too.

I set Stop/Targets and Pending Orders so it can be seen for my buddies’ lists. In that way you can always check my positions. But once more I have to remind you, please be wise, since I’m ONLY HUMAN with all the mistakes and misperceptions. Please don’t follow it blindly, use your own analysis because you and I still have many differences in amount of lot opened, strength of the margin, characteristic, trading speed, risk taking manners, and many other factors.

I don’t make that explorer opened to influence any person take same position as I do. I open my explorer just to share my trading experiences lively.

I let my trade explorer open with hope that my sharing can be useful to somebody exactly just as to me in the beginning of my trading.

Anyone may follow my positions, but the risks are on your side. I’ve warned you…

Cheers and happy trading.

Gold-god (2012-10)