When it seemed to be a confirmed uptrend, it suddenly dropped back to the south and now gold is testing its Main Uptrend Support.
From the H4 chart above, we can see that gold had a significant drop last Friday, but was able to make a pull back a little bit to the north at closing time.
This is a very interesting condition since we can see that gold has a significant bear power that push to the support area, but in the other hand, we also have a perfect doji in our 4H chart from the last week closing. More likely it will form a morning star.
If we have a confirmation of morning star from the first H4 chart candle in the opening market in Monday (just few hours from now), technically gold should go north.
Personally, I expect gold will go north on Monday although I can't say to what level yet. This is because I see gold still respects its support area and always make a rebound when touching that white support line (see the chart).
If we look to fibo line, we can see that we also have the 61.8% around the white support area.
It makes the1704-1707 area become a stronger support.
And with the possibility of the morning star (doji) from the last 4H candle, I believe it is reasonable to predict that we will have an upside move, at least for the opening market. If that happen, I expect gold only can go at most to 1730 area, not higher.
For the downside scenario:
If the bears can break 1703, there's big possibility we will have 16xx. But I believe it will not lower than 1672.
Since in the week ahead we are going to have many big impact news, just keep your MM tight.
Remember, we have seen many surprises in the last week. And believe me, those would not be the last ones.
GG - 2012.12.03
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