Forecast - 2012.11.27

For all yesterday long (my time), gold played in a very narrow path. It looked like the market was reluctant to decide where to go.
I think it was more likely because we didn't have any market mover / big news yesterday, and traders took wait and see position for a significant trigger.
If yesterday it looked like having a freezing chart, I think today (Nov 27, my time) we will have the opposite one.
One thing that I notice from my H4 Chart, gold is still playing around it's 61.8% fibo, that means to me, it still have a potential to go up more than go down. But I still think, IF, gold can go up, it will not be that easy to break the Main Uptrend Resistance (see the other chart below). I think it needs some corrections first before breaking it.

After looking the 2nd H4 Chart, we can see that gold has a very close Resistance Area that consist of 3 resistances, the Red Minor Resistance, the Yellow "Double Agent" Resistance, and the strongest one is the White Main Uptrend Resistance. That's why I have a feeling gold will not pass this resistances area in one single move.
From my other point of view, although it seems not too easy for gold to go up, I still see it is in the uptrend. It seems that gold is regaining the power to bounce up seen from my bouncing zone indicator (special thanks for my mentor, Mr. Henry Nugroho, whom I got this from) and also the 61.8% fibo lines (in the first chart).

The other confirmation for me is from the daily chart below

From my daily chart, it also pretty obvious that gold now has made a perfect Cup and Handle Pattern.
More likely, a rally of an uptrend will follow after this pattern. Of course it might not happen tomorrow since we are using the daily chart. it might happen in longer periods.
We still could have corrections before going up. Remember, I mention that gold has near strong resistances also.

Please keep in mind, this is the market and everything can happen. There is no 100% accuracy even for the best indicator in the world. I am not Fortune Teller with the crystal ball.
BUT as long as I predict using all technical I know, I am seeing an uptrend of gold, at least for weeks ahead, if I can say for days. It will not be too long, in my point of view, before gold has another attempt to break its 2012 high. Of course I also believe that fundamental can play a significant role in defining the coast. So, let's see and update daily and don't forget using good money and risk management will help us to avoid big loss.

Disclaimer:
Everything I say and share here is not to intended to influence any reader to open any position.
This is all about sharing the technical that I know, applied in live market which is still running, in order for you and I to learn together in a live environment. No one knows the result, so don't ever consider me as "must be" 100% right, since I told you I don't know the result yet. The better way to do is analyzing it more with your technical and logic. Anyone MUST responsible for his own position.
So please, do your home-works :D

Good luck...

GG - 2012.11.27

A Review and A Prediction (Part 2) - 2012.11.24

Hi everyone,
Let's continue the journey....

This is the same H4 chart as we saw in the last post, but I add more lines.
As we can see, gold has been closed in the crossing area of my Yellow Line with 1753.5 Resistance.

If my prediction about the market mentality is bullish and the bull power is still big, is correct, then we will have a rising price in the market opening.
But I think that will not be too big, because we have Main Uptrend Resistance at around 1758, and the Blue Resistance at around 1760.
So my best guess is gold will play around 1750 to 1758 / 1760 area in the Sydney and Tokyo session.
For a downside scenario, I think gold will not go lower than 1738, which is used to be a strong resistance area and now acting as support.


THE QUESTION
Predicting what will be happening in market opening is one thing. But trying to figure out what will happen next is another thing and more complex. We have to pay attention to many things.

1) Is it already a valid uptrend, or just another correction before gold dive back downside?
This is the key question for all traders when trying to mapping the chart before making any further positions. This is also an eternal question for me, which I always ask to myself every time gold make a new significant move.

2) If it is a valid uptrend, then until what level gold can go in this short term?
I will not ask for the long term case, or for several years ahead, because the answer is obvious.
A trader concerns about short term. Investor concerns about long term. So, since I want to discuss about trading here, then I have to evaluate everything that concerns about gold short term move.

To answer those question, I will use my favorite tools, simple and yet effective enough, The Fibonacci Retracement. (I will not explain about Fibonacci, please ask uncle Google to learn more about it).
I just want to show you how I use it in my chart.
As we know, the most important lines in Fibo is 23.6, 38.2, 50 and 61.8 percents.
Usually those lines create some good enough resistance function for continuation of the price in the trend or function as a confirmation of trend reversal. Not always, but often. Remember, this is the market. No technical stuff will be 100% exact. So is fibonacci, but I like to use it because its simplicity and accuracy is high enough.

Now, let's find the answer for question number 1.

From this Daily Chart, we can see that gold has been moving from the lowest point at 1527 to the highest at 1795 and then have correction back to 1672.5. After that the price is moving up again. Is it confirmed for continuation?

If we see from fibo, the price at this moment has exceeded the 23.6 fibo level, which meaning for me as a confirmation of the LONG TERM UPTREND CONTINUATION.

Now, try to see from the H4 Chart below.

 

 From the H4 Chart, we can also see that the price at the moment has broken the 61.8 Fibo level (different fibo than daily above), which also means it is almost confirmed as the MEDIUM TERM DOWNTREND REVERSAL (downtrend from 1795 on Oct 5 to 1672 on Nov 5, now it is almost certain making a reversal to the upside)

My conclusion: The confirmations from H4 and D1 from fibonacci retracement is convincing enough that we are seeing an uptrend. Of course, there is never 100% exact for the market, so there is always still a chance that it might be wrong. What do you believe? Do you believe we are in the uptrend at this moment?

Now let's move forward to the final question.
From all of the important level of fibo, I used to give special attention to 38.2 and 50 level that often act as a significant R/S level. Please notice my green arrow in the daily chart and 4H chart above.
Can you see that the 50% fibo act as strong R/S level?
Just take a look of these more charts below:

50% Level of Fibonacci Retracement as the support in M5 Chart

50% Level of Fibonacci Retracement as the Support and also Resistance in M5 Chart

50% Level of Fibonacci Retracement as the Support in H4 Chart

50% Level of Fibonacci Retracement as the Resistance in D1 Chart

Just notice how the 50% Fibonacci level so often be found as the support or the resistance in the chart. Just try to draw by yourself in any random trend and you'll see what I mean.
Now, if we already agree that 50% level of fibo is so often show up in the chart, why don't we use it to predict how much gold will go this time.
But in order not to over predict and get the minimum price level instead of the maximum price, I will use the smaller level of fibonacci, that is 38,2%, not 50% in the prediction.

Assuming that you believe we are most likely in the uptrend and gold will go higher until price level H and then retrace back to the resistance at price level R. Now let's define R level first.

Now, look at the steps below:

Step 1: Suppose that I take 1738 as the most strongest support for this short time when retracement happen later after this next uptrend ends. Just draw that support on the chart. (I use 4H chart)

Step 2: Draw your Fibonacci Retracement so that the 38.2% level is overlapping with your Resistance.
Step 3: Take the price figure at 0% level of your Fibo as the result of the  your prediction. In this case, it is at 1778.30. That means that we are expecting the gold to go to 1778 area to make this uptrend completed and then has a correction down to 1738. We're doing that using a technical tool that historically proven to be right many times. So, it is not a random prediction.

See, it is not too difficult to make a prediction using a simple tool as Fibonacci Retracement, right? :D
Now, you look like a Pro, don't you? LOL

Ok, let's go back to the business. It's not finish yet.
In the sample above I use 38.2% level instead of 50%. If we use the 50%, we will get the higher result.
In this case, if you and I believe that 1738 is the most likely to be the support when gold has retrace back later after this uptrend happen, then gold must go to more than 1800 this time to have 1738 as the support if we use 50% level of fibo in this prediction.
It is up to you what level of Fibo to use. What I share in this post is the most simplest technique yet effective.

Overall conclusion of my insight for gold at short term:
Yes, I believe we are in the uptrend.
It is big possibility we will see the next attempt from gold to break the 2012 highest before the years end.

Disclaimer:
This is the longest post I ever make just to share what I'm doing in predicting the market with hope it will help many trader especially newbies out there.
Always keep in mind, I AM NOT a professional adviser, nor a true god. I make mistake along the way, and that is the way I learn.
So, please don't take everything RAW. Use your own logic to analyze before taking any position.
Have a strict money and risk management for your own sake.

Good luck everyone. Have a blessed day...

GG - 2012.11.25

A Review and A Prediction (Part 1) - 2012.11.24

Hi everyone,

Yesterday was a "Regretful" Friday. I believe many of us has regrets.
No matter you made profit or suffered a loss, right?
For those who suffered loss, it is obvious what their regrets for. But funny thing is, those who got profit also regret why they put a TP so close and got small profit when they should had have a huge one, am I right?
LOL :D
Don't worry, yesterday was not a doom day. We still have trading chance next week.

Let's review gold market.

Having a look at my H4 chart above, I can say that gold has TWO Main Uptrends.
The uptrend now become more obvious since the gold seems to change its main path support (white one) to the purple line (see the chart, the bottom one). If this is what we really get here, it means pretty clear the bull is in the game right now. Maybe it's still to early to conclude since next week I believe we will have big volatility and price can go wilder than yesterday (last Friday), whether it's up or down.
IF gold can't go lower than the purple support and bounce back upside, then we can actually say that the new uptrend path is valid and we will have faster bull plays in the arena.
I even have a feeling that gold will directly go higher on Monday without going down first. I'll write the reason for it later.
For other side, IF gold can break the purple support, we can't automatically say it is making a downtrend, since gold is still playing in the old main uptrend path, which is between the white R/S.

Another interesting here is that we have a "double agent". Sometimes it plays as support and the other times it acts as resistance. See my yellow line in the chart, typed as Support + Resistance. That's why I draw that yellow line an give a credit for it as it may have a significant role in the future.
I also mentioned in my post last night that gold probably closed not higher than 1753.5, and as we can see, that's true. I said that because I saw a minor resistance at 1753.5 which would cross the yellow line, and now we can see that the cross is exactly be the place where the gold stopped.

But I also made a wrong prediction last night. I thought, as nature calls for Friday, there would be a weaken move, but it didn't happen.
To discuss it details, we have to zoom to my M5 chart below

Now, just notice several things from this zoom view:
1) I expected that gold would go a little bit down from profit taking or cutting losses from traders that do not want to take risks for next week as usually happen on Friday. That's why I said it might be between 1740-1750. BUT, it didn't happen as expected. Gold was closed at strengthen condition. This gives me more reason to think that market mentality is very bullish. It showed that the bull pushing power was still there, especially when it happened on Friday night. This is also the reason why I say at the beginning of this post, that I have a feeling gold will moving up without first making correction on Monday.
2) Price has just stopped at the right place where my resistances existed. I think the market respect those resistances, so we can use both that lines (Yellow and Red, see the chart) as a reference to  predict gold's next move.

Now, we are moving forward trying to predict what will happen next week.
But I'm truly sorry, I don't have any time to make posts at this moment. I gotta go.
My next post needs many chart, and that will take much time. I'll try to post it later. Just check my blog before Sunday night (my time, GMT+7) if you want to know.

Have a nice weekend....

GG - 2012.11.24

Last Update - 2012.11.23

 A LESSON LEARNED

Today I got another lesson lively. Usually I am not the kind of a man that ever underestimate NEWS. But I DID IT today!!! Damn.... (excuse me for that word :D)
Sorry? Yes. I could have made 10 times profit than I got just now. All my prediction was on the track. I was right until the news broke all my plan.
Looking the M15 chart above, everything went on its track. Gold price stuck around my predicted price.  I was scalping in that area and making my 1% daily target. Already got that target when I closed all my long position and that jump happened. If only I hold it few more minutes.....
That's why I always say, never underestimate news. I often put aside my technical for a while when the certain big impact news show up.

Now stop talking the history. Let's discuss the situation....
Let's take a look at the 4H Chart below. 

As we can see, this news must be big. It broke all my resistances in a single move. The last week path resistance (1), my purple top resistance (2), both my temporary uptrend lines (3 + 4).
Now, the only last resistance left is The Main Uptrend Resistance (5). I think it should be the strongest of all and I'm pretty sure gold will not break it in one pass only.
Today is become an extraordinary Friday. Gold price jumped so high and broke many resistances.
But I believe, as the nature calls for Friday, we're gonna have some correction at closing market in few more hours. Logically, many traders don't want to take the risks for next week. Many profit will be cashed in, and many cut losses will be made. In other words, I believe we will have a little bit retracement downside although I think it will not too big.
I think we will not have closing more than 1753.5, since it will be the next minor resistance for me before the Main Trend Resistance. We'll see....

For the downside scenario, I don't think gold will gonna go lower than my purple resistance which now automatically become the support for gold around 1736-1738 area.
It's more likely gold will be closed above 1740 and below 1750. Let's see.

Let's wait and see what this shiny yellow thing will do next week. Will it surprise us with jumping or the diving? Just be prepared for higher volatility next week.

Good luck and have a good weekend everyone....

GG - 2012.11.23

Update - 2012.11.23

Smart Moves!!!
If the bull was a chess player, I bet he would win... :D
Just look how it cleverly made the new uptrend path only by shifting the old support and still using its old resistance.
Now the only barrier bull has to break is its last high at 1735,5.
But, wait a minute! Not so fast, we still have a purple resistance there.
Hhmmm.... Does the bull has enough power to break that too?

It seems that gold has come to the strong resistance area right now.
I am bullish, but I doubt gold can break up through this area in one move. No power for that.
More likely it will stuck here, move up and down for several times, maybe go down a little bit further, before decide where to go.
I think it is not today it will break up. Trading in Friday frighten many traders, so the bull power should weaken a little bit in the week closing.

I'd be prepared because this area should be a good spot to making new positions since I believe next week we will have big volatility in the market and break its current path (grey box).

My opinion, gold may go up next week. But in the top of the grey box area is not the best spot for me to open buy. Just wait near the market closing to buy.

WARNING!! This is not a professional advice for anyone to make any position. This is only my own consideration for my self. DO NOT taking any position based on what I'm saying here but do your own research and consideration. We are having different strategy and technic when facing unexpected trading situation.

Good luck everyone

GG - 2012.11.23

Forecast - 2012.11.23

As predicted yesterday night in my last post, gold is obviously starting its sideways.
The question is, where's its sideways path?
May be it's still a little bit too early, but I think it must be a narrow one. My guess, it will be more or less between my dashed lines.

Things that needs to be considered this morning:

1. Gold is still hanging up a little bit above its 61,8% fibo and has once broke it but no lower than its 50% fibo. For me, this is the sign that bear is still exist but not too strong.

2. As long as I know this morning, there will not be any big impact news for gold. Tokyo is having holiday and New York is still in thanksgiving mode. For me, this is a very ideal condition to expect a scalping path. Of course we will have a narrow one but usually more predictable. Just be prepared to get those extra pips. Let's wait and see...

3. But remember, today is Friday, and for most time Friday is a curse to the bull. Price usually going down a little in Friday. Even though, I think gold will not drop too much today. Just be aware of this fact.

That's all for this morning.
Have a wonderful Friday pals. Good luck to you all....

GG 2012-11-23

More Update - 2012.11.22

It has always been interesting looking at gold movement this week. Sometimes it pretty easy to predict, and the other times it makes me confuse where it would go.

The bear and the bull are still fighting and I'm still not sure who will be the winner. Gold is still in the last week path area, has not taken any decision where to go.

As I said, this is a very slow moving week for gold and we don't see big volatility, and I'm pretty sure it will be like this until this week closing time. US is celebrating thanksgiving, and no big impact news for gold except Euro Summit, which I doubt will yield any big impact result for gold.

So anyone who want to see gold at 1750 area (including me, of course) should delay the wish for next week, I suppose.

Actually, I believe it will be very soon the bear and the bull has to make decision whose turn now?

From the 1H chart above, we can clearly see that gold has 3 times attempting to break 1733-1736 area. And for all those attempts, it failed.

We can even see that for the second failure (B), gold was drowning to the bottom and then came back surprisingly with turbo engine and fly directly to the top of the weekly path area (3). It almost succeed to break the resistance but after being struggle for sometimes, the bear turned out to be the winner once more and pushed the price to the bottom of the path (C).

Yesterday we can see the bull power was coming back to the arena without any counter from the bear (4). But today, they fight and are still fighting until this night (my time).

Can you feel what I feel?

It has to be now, or at least in no longer time, gold has to decide where to go. Honestly, some hours ago (after posting my update just before this one), I thought the bear would win. But it turned out that the bull has not been diminished yet.

Since the chart has reached the end of my temporary uptrend path (touch the right side of the uptrend path) then usually it will make a new trend. I expect gold will begin to make a sideways. If bull wants to be the winner, it has to break upside NOW (the blue arrow). Honestly, I doubt it.

Looking at the situation at the moment, when we have US holiday and no more big impact news for the rest of this week, I really think gold will make a new sideways path. This is the most likely for me, since I don't see any power (from the bull or the bear) left for this week. So, it's very logic to expect a sideways in this condition. (I didn't draw the arrow, but I know you know, sideways is headed to the right of course)

But looking at the history gold has been made in this long path (grey box), I'm afraid the bear will not agree with me. There is a possibility history repeats itself and the bear wins. Means: gold go downside (red arrow) as for the fourth times. But no, I do not agree. It a small chance. BTW, I got to write it down here since it's been recorded 3 times as history in this path. 

Well, my conclusions are as followed (sorted from the most likely to happen):

1) Sideways

2) Going upside to 1735-1740 area

3) Going downside to 1722-1728 area.

You decide what you believe to happen....

Good luck everyone. Good night. CU tomorrow....

GG - 2012.11.22