Sabtu, 24 November 2012

A Review and A Prediction (Part 1) - 2012.11.24

Hi everyone,

Yesterday was a "Regretful" Friday. I believe many of us has regrets.
No matter you made profit or suffered a loss, right?
For those who suffered loss, it is obvious what their regrets for. But funny thing is, those who got profit also regret why they put a TP so close and got small profit when they should had have a huge one, am I right?
LOL :D
Don't worry, yesterday was not a doom day. We still have trading chance next week.

Let's review gold market.


Having a look at my H4 chart above, I can say that gold has TWO Main Uptrends.
The uptrend now become more obvious since the gold seems to change its main path support (white one) to the purple line (see the chart, the bottom one). If this is what we really get here, it means pretty clear the bull is in the game right now. Maybe it's still to early to conclude since next week I believe we will have big volatility and price can go wilder than yesterday (last Friday), whether it's up or down.
IF gold can't go lower than the purple support and bounce back upside, then we can actually say that the new uptrend path is valid and we will have faster bull plays in the arena.
I even have a feeling that gold will directly go higher on Monday without going down first. I'll write the reason for it later.
For other side, IF gold can break the purple support, we can't automatically say it is making a downtrend, since gold is still playing in the old main uptrend path, which is between the white R/S.

Another interesting here is that we have a "double agent". Sometimes it plays as support and the other times it acts as resistance. See my yellow line in the chart, typed as Support + Resistance. That's why I draw that yellow line an give a credit for it as it may have a significant role in the future.
I also mentioned in my post last night that gold probably closed not higher than 1753.5, and as we can see, that's true. I said that because I saw a minor resistance at 1753.5 which would cross the yellow line, and now we can see that the cross is exactly be the place where the gold stopped.

But I also made a wrong prediction last night. I thought, as nature calls for Friday, there would be a weaken move, but it didn't happen.
To discuss it details, we have to zoom to my M5 chart below


Now, just notice several things from this zoom view:
1) I expected that gold would go a little bit down from profit taking or cutting losses from traders that do not want to take risks for next week as usually happen on Friday. That's why I said it might be between 1740-1750. BUT, it didn't happen as expected. Gold was closed at strengthen condition. This gives me more reason to think that market mentality is very bullish. It showed that the bull pushing power was still there, especially when it happened on Friday night. This is also the reason why I say at the beginning of this post, that I have a feeling gold will moving up without first making correction on Monday.
2) Price has just stopped at the right place where my resistances existed. I think the market respect those resistances, so we can use both that lines (Yellow and Red, see the chart) as a reference to  predict gold's next move.

Now, we are moving forward trying to predict what will happen next week.
But I'm truly sorry, I don't have any time to make posts at this moment. I gotta go.
My next post needs many chart, and that will take much time. I'll try to post it later. Just check my blog before Sunday night (my time, GMT+7) if you want to know.

Have a nice weekend....

GG - 2012.11.24


3 komentar:

  1. Nice bgt prediksi nya GG... Hehehe... Dilanjutkan hari besok deh, kemarin udah begadang cemas... Totally agree with you... :D

    BalasHapus
  2. Hi Gurwinder,

    Thanks for the compliments.
    Hope it can be helpful and useful for you.
    :)

    BalasHapus