My Fundamental Prediction Before FOMC

Wow.... It's very interesting. That's what I think when I see the gold chart.
I try to analyze it from my point of view.
What I say about interesting gold move is when I notice that gold make an uptrend slope and breaks it several time and than come back to its path.
Just notice how it broke upside at point 1 and then go back down at point 2. So with point 3-4, 5-6, and 7-8.
The most interesting here is when gold move downside and broke point 7. I already expected it would be go to around 1721 because it was a solid short term support. I think the reason why gold moved downside was because market expected that US data would be green. But when it turned out to be red, market suddenly push gold up to its previous range and stopped at its previous resistance.

Now, the question is, how will FOMC effect gold?
If I have to answer the question then I have to think what market expect from FOMC announcement.
I think, FOMC will not announce anything new or any surprise. The most likely in my opinion is that FOMC will emphasize the continuation of QE3, especially when now we have red data, and the uncertainty of fiscal cliff. I don't think FOMC will announce any policy about fiscal cliff since it is a political matter that has to be decided by politician (president and congress), not FOMC.

So, I really think that gold will play around its current path, well, maybe down a little bit to 1720, before finally it go up and break the resistance.

Why I say it will be going up? Simple, it's just because the result of FOMC is almost certain for me. Whatever they'll announce, it will not be about the reduction of QE3. More likely it will be about stressing the existence of QE3 and the need of FOMC's "power" to cure US economy.

Let's see...
PS: I have to remind it once more that never take something RAW, especially from me :D
Use your own analysis before making any position.

Good luck

GG - 2012.11.14