My Opinion

In these last few days, gold has shown a very interesting move. Last Friday, gold had a downside breakout because the impact of NFP data and then moved fast to the north in the beginning of this week ALSO because the impact of a strong news, Obama win the election.
I wonder what would had happened if ever Romney won the election, and not Obama? How far gold would go south?
The point is, never underestimate the very strong news. I always even say that we can put aside technical a while when there is a very strong news. It doesn't mean I am a pure fundamentalist. No I'm not. I am a moderate type person. I pay attention to very strong fundamental and always use the technical. And please note, News and Opinion looks the same but they are totally different. Many newbies sometimes consider opinion as news. As for me, I pay attention to really strong news and ignore all opinions.

Now we're talking about the chart.
From 4H chart, we can see that gold made its way up and only 1 time pushed back down (no. 1) just a little by 38,2 fibo. On the second attempt (no.2), gold easily broke 38,2 fibo which usually be a strong enough resistance. At that point, I thought gold could make its way to 1740 area, but it didn't. This was all because the situation in EUR that influenced gold move.
After a correction to its 23,6 fibo (around 1703, no.3) area, gold moved back north and struggling around its 38,2 fibo once again for a while (no.4) then continue its way up. What made gold interesting this time is, it wouldn't go any south even if the US data (unemployment) was green enough. Gold even went north and broke its 50 fibo line (no.5) in one single move.
From all these moves, I have an opinion that gold has a very strong bullish power back to its move. Maybe it is all because the euphoria of Obama winning. The question is, how far the bull will go?
I expect gold will not go higher than 1748 (61,8 fibo) this week and there is still a possibility it will make correction to 1720-1730 area. But if gold ever happen to break higher than its 61,8 fibo, I believe we will see the next attempt of gold breaking its 2012 highest soon.
For downside scenario, I don't think it will go back lower than 1700 anymore. The momentum for that has diminished.
Always trading safe, strict to risk management, and believe your own analysis.

GG - 2012.11.09