As I predicted in my last post yesterday that gold has been moving sideways for a week and that indicated a possibility of moving downside. We can see that gold moved downside yesterday.
Why I was saying that? Just because market reaction was not usual. We had all red for Core Retail, PPI and Retail sales but that could not boost the price to break its near resistance @1738. The price even went down to its previous support and made one more spike 2 hours before FOMC.
As I already expected, FOMC didn't announce any surprises, and for me, that is why price went down after FOMC. Well, I was wrong here. I thought price would stay above my red resistance but I was wrong. Price has once more gone back to its previous path and break its support just before Core CPI and Unemployment Claims. These announcements boost price upside for just a moment and then unexpectedly push the price more southern than I expected. Even a very red Philly Index couldn't boost it up again and Bernanke speech turned out have no effect at all because maybe the market has already knew what he's gotta say, rhetoric.
Now, looking all of this current condition, and seeing that we will not have any strong impact news, I expect gold will have a new short term sideways path between 1711 - 1716, which also become a scalping path for me. I am hoping today we can have a good scalping day just like we had on last Monday. See the chart below.
From my point of view at this moment, gold will have support at 1711 and 1700 area. From what I see until the moment I write this, I don't think gold will go lower than 1698. I even have a prediction more likely that gold might go a llittle bit higher, may be back to its last path because it seems that market respect that path as a fair value for gold at this moment. And also we can see a long tail on the H1 chart below which indicate a push higher although I'm not sure that one has the strong pushing power. At least, that indicate the bear power has been fought back by bulls, means no more down please.... See the chart below for my R/S level.
GG - 2012.11.16
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