The bear and the bull are still fighting and I'm still not sure who will be the winner. Gold is still in the last week path area, has not taken any decision where to go.
As I said, this is a very slow moving week for gold and we don't see big volatility, and I'm pretty sure it will be like this until this week closing time. US is celebrating thanksgiving, and no big impact news for gold except Euro Summit, which I doubt will yield any big impact result for gold.
So anyone who want to see gold at 1750 area (including me, of course) should delay the wish for next week, I suppose.
Actually, I believe it will be very soon the bear and the bull has to make decision whose turn now?
From the 1H chart above, we can clearly see that gold has 3 times attempting to break 1733-1736 area. And for all those attempts, it failed.
We can even see that for the second failure (B), gold was drowning to the bottom and then came back surprisingly with turbo engine and fly directly to the top of the weekly path area (3). It almost succeed to break the resistance but after being struggle for sometimes, the bear turned out to be the winner once more and pushed the price to the bottom of the path (C).
Yesterday we can see the bull power was coming back to the arena without any counter from the bear (4). But today, they fight and are still fighting until this night (my time).
Can you feel what I feel?
It has to be now, or at least in no longer time, gold has to decide where to go. Honestly, some hours ago (after posting my update just before this one), I thought the bear would win. But it turned out that the bull has not been diminished yet.
Since the chart has reached the end of my temporary uptrend path (touch the right side of the uptrend path) then usually it will make a new trend. I expect gold will begin to make a sideways. If bull wants to be the winner, it has to break upside NOW (the blue arrow). Honestly, I doubt it.
Looking at the situation at the moment, when we have US holiday and no more big impact news for the rest of this week, I really think gold will make a new sideways path. This is the most likely for me, since I don't see any power (from the bull or the bear) left for this week. So, it's very logic to expect a sideways in this condition. (I didn't draw the arrow, but I know you know, sideways is headed to the right of course)
But looking at the history gold has been made in this long path (grey box), I'm afraid the bear will not agree with me. There is a possibility history repeats itself and the bear wins. Means: gold go downside (red arrow) as for the fourth times. But no, I do not agree. It a small chance. BTW, I got to write it down here since it's been recorded 3 times as history in this path.
Well, my conclusions are as followed (sorted from the most likely to happen):
1) Sideways
2) Going upside to 1735-1740 area
3) Going downside to 1722-1728 area.
You decide what you believe to happen....
Good luck everyone. Good night. CU tomorrow....
GG - 2012.11.22
saya floating cukup besar... btw apakah di bulan desember emas bisa menyentuh 1690 atau 1700 lg? (stlh saya kumpulkan data2 , dari analisis saya sih bisa2 aja) tp saya perlu pendapat anda jg...
BalasHapusHi Sis,
BalasHapus(sori kemarin2 disebut gan :D, soalnya baru liat profile bloggernya barusan aja)
Jujur aja menurut saya semua bisa terjadi. Namanya market selalu ada kejutan2. Hari ini kelihatannya pasti naik, tau-tau besok bisa drop habis. Itulah kenapa sampai trader terbaik pun pasti menyarankan untuk menggunakan money management yang ketat.
Untuk emas sebenarnya saya termasuk yang bullish. Dari semua data yang saya pelajari, saya percaya untuk jangka panjang emas akan terus naik. Tetapi tidak mungkin tanpa ada koreksi. Nah untuk posisi saat ini memang tidak terlalu jauh ke 1690 atau 1700. Cuma $30an saja sih. Dari sejarah, sering terjadi emas drop bahkan sampai ratusan dolar. Tapi menurut saya yang terbaik adalah tetap menggunakan Stop Loss. Saya dulu sering mengalami hal seperti ini. Karena tidak mau rugi dan berharap harga akan kembali (baik buy maupun sell), saya tidak mau Cut Loss / pasang Stop Loss. Eh akhirnya yang harusnya saya rugi hanya belasan atau puluhan persen, ini malah account saya habis kena call margin. Jujur saya tidak berani mengatakan apakah mungkin atau tidak emas balik ke 1700 an. Selalu ada kemungkinan. Tapi untuk keamanan anda, saya sangat sarankan pasang stop loss.
Berdasarkan data natural cycle nya Larry Williams, bulan november ini emas memang diramalkan bisa turun dan akan naik mulai awal desember.
Tapi dari grafik seasonal 30 tahunan, justru menunjukkan bahwa november ini emas sudah mulai naik.
Kalau feeling saya (ingat ya saya sebut FEELING bukan ramalan loh, jadi bisa aja salah) sejauh ini angka 1736-1740 merupakan resistance yang sangat kuat. Di atas itu ada bbrp resistance tapi gak sekuat ini. Kalau saya jadi anda, saya tetap akan pasang SL mungkin di atas 1740 sedikit.
Sekali lagi sis, coba analisa sendiri ya, jangan ambil putusan hanya karena omongan saya. Ingat, saya juga bisa salah dan saya tidak punya kemampuan supranatural yang pasti bisa meramal dengan tepat.
Saya berharap semoga anda bisa mendapat solusi yang terbaik untuk masalah ini.
Good luck