Forecast 2013-03-19

Gold is moving up these days and was able to break 1600. But now it has already touched its Fibo 23.6%, which has been the resistance area for its last upward movement.
I think gold will make a narrow sideways around 1610, but still above 1600, at least until FOMC on this coming Wednesday.
I personally think that The Fed will not making any surprising announcement, but still gold may move big enough from the current price, whether it goes up or down.
But if I look technically only to the chart and not considering any coming news, I think gold probably will move a little bit upside, maybe to the 1620 - 1630 area, at most too its 38.2% Fibo line.

Let's take a look another daily chart using DGMMA analysis as shown in the chart below.

We can see that from Darryl Guppy Multiple Moving Average analysis all fast MA has shown a reversal by pointing upside. This is the first sign of a reversal, although it also can only mean a correction from the main downtrend. Meanwhile, all the slow MA is still pointing down which mean the uptrend is not confirmed yet.
From Momentum Analysis on GLD (SPDR Gold market in AMEX, I can't show the chart here due to the rights), I can clearly see that for the last 5 trading days, there are more Buyer than Seller in the market, which mean a sign of a bull trend (or at least, a significant correction).
Daily RSI(14) also still in neutral area that is around 51.28 in my daily chart when I write this. That means gold has not been in overbought condition yet and still have fairly chance to go a little bit further up.

My conclusion is, gold probably has more power to go up a little bit than to go down.
Please be wise. Always use stop losses and good money management.

Good luck.

GG 2013-03-19

Forecast - 2013.03.06

Been busy this month. Didn't have any time to write the update in my blog.
Gold has been moving quite far since my last post on Feb 1st.

From the chart above, we can see that gold moved exactly between my white support and yellow resistance from Feb 1st (my last post) to Feb 11th. It formed a very good scalping area.

And as I predicted, gold broke the pennant on Feb 11th (in my earlier post I predicted gold would break the pennant at most before Feb 20).

Let's see the current condition.

Above is the M30 chart. We can see that gold moves sideways in a very narrow path. Since it already form a very short distance between the R/S at this moment, I think this is not an ideal time to make a position, even for scalping. The Risk-Reward ratio is not good enough.

Let's see from the long term time frame.

From the daily chart, we can see 2 very important things to notice. The first one is the Brown Resistance which is the Long Term Trend Resistance. This line is very strong and have never been broken before. I think this will be a strong resistance for some more months, probably up to mid year 2013. For me, this line will be my taking-profit Long positions.

The second important thing to pay attention is The Long Term Trend Support area (grey area). I define this as area because it spreads between 1522 to 1547 ($25 spread). This will be a good buying area for me with the stop loss a couple of $ below this area and the target a little bit below the Brown Resistance  lines.

My conclusion, gold will move sideways between Brown Resistance Line and Grey Support Area at least for this month (March).

Good luck.

GG - 2013.03.06