Update - 2012.11.29

Exactly as predicted in my last post, gold made sideways in the blue box area until NY open.
Going higher a bit after NY open and play around 38.2 fibo.

For My Personal Notes:
Today fundamentals (US News):
GDP and Unemployment Claims (almost the same as predicted)
Pending Home Sales (very good / green, +5.2 < +0.9 < +0.4 = real < predicted < last)

Analysis:
It's very logic if GDP and Unemployment didn't give any effect because the result just almost the same as predicted.
But Pending Home Sales was very good (green), almost 6 times than predicted, and should push gold much lower than that. Actually we didn't see it. Gold even seems to go north.
I smell bullish in the air.

For My Personal Notes:
Still can't get any convincing of what might cause the drop.
Some possible causes:
1.  India gold demand down ( http://m.indianexpress.com/news/%22indias-gold-demand-may-dip-by-33--at-700-tonne-in-2012-wgc%22/989113/)
2. Sell order 7500 x 100 troy ounce or 24 tons physical gold sold (rumors, don't have link to these)
3. Obama speech about tax cut (may be not since he speech after the drop has started)
4. Warren Buffet on tv about Fiscal Cliff (I don't think so)

Sorry to all readers,
I have to put the above note in this post since it is also my personal log.

Now let's talk about the chart.
Seeing that gold is still hiking although there is a very good Pending Home Sales data just now, I think the bull is back again. It is very obvious that bull wants to make a compensation of what bear has done with that deep drop. Looking at my H1 Chart, it is very clear gold can pass 23.6 fibo very easily (arrow 1) and pushed back down just 1 time only (arrow 2) and now it seems it is playing around 38.2 fibo and start trying to break its 50% fibo.
I believe it will not that easy for gold going up to its position before the drop. Need more time.
I think tomorrow gold will play between 1720-1735, still sideways with a slight tendency of going up (as long as there is no other surprises)

GG - 2012.11.29

Forecast - 2012.11.29

Hi everyone,
Being curious of what the cause for these two last surprises, I am still not getting any convincing explanation.
I feel bad about it since one of the lesson I got long ago from an expert, say that if I got an unexpected move out of technical I had have predicted before, that it would be my "must-do" homework to search for the cause and add that to my experiences library. But, for these case, I'm not getting anything yet.

Okay, let's skip that for later. It's better we focus on the chart.
As in my 3rd Update (last post), I predicted gold will make some sideways first at 1716-1723 area (blue box). If we look at M15 chart, I have strong feeling that up to NY open, it is more likely gold will make sideways with at most 23.8% as the lower limit and 50% as the upper limit. I have strong feeling it will make even a more narrow path of sideways IF there is no unscheduled surprises. Even more, I'm hoping there's a scalping path for today. Let's see...

Good luck and trade well

GG - 2012.11.29

3rd Update - 2012.11.28

This is for the final update of date 2012.11.28 even though it's already Nov 29 (my time)

The last candle in my 4H chart shows that bear power has diminished. Even though it go back downside once more, I think  the 50% fibo will hold that. and if it breaks that fibo support, there are still the main uptrend support (white line) and the 61.8% fibo line. Beyond that we will see 16xx area. Hard to believe it would happen, but as we already seen, surprises happened. So, just keep on your MM strictly.

Technically, I see gold will have 1713 - 1735 as its playground for a while. More likely it will begin a sideways around 1716-1723 first. Let's see....

Well trade friends....

GG - 2012.11.29

2nd Update - 2012.11.28

Haven't got a chance to put my briefcase in its place when I step into the house, I shocked seeing gold dropped that far.
Running over to my computer, looking for what news made this happened, I couldn't find anything big.
This is the second time in only a week that we have this phenomena. This is also why I always say many times in my post that SURPRISES HAPPEN.
I dare to bet for anything, no one in the world know when this would happen. This is beyond any technical.
The bears has pushed the price gone to the very base of its support, The Main Uptrend Support. I should say that this is the last support gold has, and if it is broken then it is not impossible we are seeing 16xx again.
But looking at the gold move when I make this post, I think this should be the farthest spot where the bear can go today. I doubt it will go much lower although I'm not so sure anymore because we already had 2 surprises in only 5 last days. Even until now, I still don't know which fundamentals cause these last two surprises.
If gold can move back higher than 1718, then I believe it will play between 1720-1730.
As usual, the very important thing is, strict to your MM.

Good luck...

PS: when I'm almost posting this, I notice that gold is beginning to form a "possible" morning star in that last candle in H4 chart. But it still 2 hours and 7 minutes to go before the candle is fully end its 4 hours duration. If that truly form a morning star, then technically we are going to have a rise back in gold price. Let's see...

GG - 2012.11.28

Update - 2012.11.28

Today gold is still playing in my blue box as I predicted in the morning post.
I'm still seeing that the bear power is still not too big, and it is only some consolidation moves for gold to go up and break the resistances area (see my posts before).
Unless it breaks lower than 1734 (50% fibo), I will not consider gold in bearish mode yet.
If it breaks down, I expect it will not go lower than 1720.
In the other hand, if gold can't break that support area (1735-1738) until NY close, I think we can expect another north trip to 1750 area but not breaking the Main Uptrend Resistance yet today.

Let's wait and see since there's still some big impact news has not come out yet.

Trade safe and well...

GG - 2012.11.28

Forecast - 2011.11.28

It seems that gold delay its uptrend move and would like try to test its new path support first. After having almost 2 days narrow sideways, gold tends to go lower a little bit to its support area.
From the H4 chart and my indicators, gold  is showing an intention to go lower and now is already around its new path support (purple - 1).
I think gold will not break lower than 1735, since we have 3 supports there and seems the gold move doesn't have strong power. With all the good news (green) for USD yesterday but still can't push gold much lower, I still think there will not be any deep correction. But please always be careful since surprises happen.

Zooming to my M15 Chart, in my point of view, probably gold will only play inside my blue box, which is between 1738 - 1745.5.

Or at most for the downside scenario in this morning to London open, maybe it will go a bit lower to its support area between 1735 (which is also the 38.2 fibo) - 1738. This area was the resistance area which now automatically has to be the support area.
For the upside scenario, I think it is not today for gold to break the resistance at 1753.5.
We are not seeing scheduled big impact fundamentals for today that can move gold much, except later when US market already open. So, I think its better turning off the screen and get some fresh air rather than seeing a "dead-man pulsation" whole day long....

Good luck....

GG 2012.11.28

How I Trade Gold - 2011.11.27

It's been a boring time to watch a "dead-man" chart like these last two days.
It seems as if the whole market in the world is having holiday in the same time. Even scalping is hardly done in such price!!! OMG, where's the market mover??

Okay then, I think today I will not post a prediction but use this occasion to post my experience and how I do my trade in gold market.

I always say that I'm bullish for gold in long term. in other words I say  Gold is always rising.

Of course it doesn't mean without any correction. There are corrections, sometimes real deep correction, but what I mean here is, the price of gold will always rise in the long term.

"Gold production and underground gold reserves: 
In 2009 and 2010 world gold production stood at 2,450 and resp. 2,500 tonnes. It is estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey that the world still has gold resources of 51,000 tonnes, with 33,000 tonnes identified and the remaining 18,000 tonnes as undiscovered resources. Thus, with the current annual mining volume, underground gold reserves would last for 20 years."
source: http://goldratefortoday.org/benefits-gold-finite-resource/

Even if we don't count recent economic situation, the world will face a rising price of gold as the result of the lack of supply versus the growing demand (since population is growing, demand is also rising). This is very logic, there's no other substitution for gold function known until this day.

Even oil will have a replacement soon. Although it will not be quick enough because oil business is a very gigantic and involved many super rich people and many powerful countries so it will not that easy when dealing with politics and powerful background. Not to tell how much needed to change the infrastructure for the new type of energy, but we already have a significant clue about the end of the fossils fuels. I think most of us who read my post here will see that oil price will come to zero in his lifetime. This is one article that very interesting to read and as proof that oil era will be diminished soon. (sorry, this article is in Indonesian language. Just use Google translate to read that in English) http://id.berita.yahoo.com/jet-berbahan-bakar-nabati-pertama-tinggal-landas-di-020407418.html
So, what do you think of gold? Something which is depleting but maybe will never have a substitution and the other hand facing the increasing demand?

Now, let's add all the situations we have nowadays.
Today, we have the "irrational" amount of fiat money (in paper, account, check form etc) than we have in history. All big countries such as USA, UK, Japan, Europe countries are adding more fiat money in gigantic amount. Logically, this all fiat money should have underlying assets that warranty its existence. Yes I know, this underlying assets are not only gold, there may be stocks, economy status, capability of government to pay their debt, bonds, property, lands, business, and there are still many that can be named here. 
But still GOLD is the most liquid and trusted, and also the most valuable which value will never reduced by anything.
I'll give you the examples. Companies can be bankrupt, the payment of mature bonds can be failed, the stocks can be broke, property although seems more valuable amongst the other but is not liquid and the value may reduce in crisis time. But what is happening to gold? No. It still the best amongst of all. 

I still have many to tell about gold, technical or fundamental, that shows gold MUST go up. But I think I will not discuss it here, because it is not my main topic. If you want to know, just googling. There's so many sites you can find that will tell you the facts.

Now, back to our discussion about how I trade.
Just try to get into my mind. What if you were me. What would you do with all this facts that you see and have a bold confidence about where the price is heading?
Yup... Actually I don't even need to explain anything, you already know the answer, right?
Such knowledge and convidence about gold influence my style of trading.
I prefer to open Buy Positions rather than Sell. I think if I have wrong Buy position, sooner or later, the market will pick up my position. But if I have wrong Sell position, it could be a "disaster".

Actually I have some levels of trading gold, sort by the safest to the riskiest one:

1. Invest in gold physically
This is an old fashion way to make fortune of gold but the safest one. This is what our ancestors do to store their wealth. I do it also but not too much.
Suppose that you have fund of USD1.000 which you allocate for investing gold.. You can buy gold about 0.5714 oz at price, let's say $1,750 now.
Let's say gold will rise later to $1,900, then you will have profit as follow:
= 0,5714 x ($1.900 - $1.750) = $ 85.71

2. Invest gold using leverage but don't trade it
Instead of buying gold physically, try to invest it in leverage trading. To do this, we have to secure our investment because we are not holding the physic of the gold. We only have an account in the broker, right? So do these steps:

• Make a due diligence of your chosen broker before investing. The bigger the broker the safer your investment would be.
• Prepare how much idle fund you will put in your investment. Remember, IDLE FUND, not the fund you need for daily use because this fund will be placed in your account for some time.
• Define what is the worst price you believe gold will have correction. Let's say you believe gold will not go lower than $ 1.550 / troy ounce. And let's say the current price is $1.750 which also the price assumed as your buying price. It means that you have to prepare your margin endurance to hold your position if it turns out that gold price is going down after you open buy position at $1.750.

Just note these:
1 Regular Lot size = 100 troy ounce, you will have $100 profit/loss for each $1 change of gold price.
1 Mini Lot size = 10 troy ounce, you will have $10 of profit/loss for each $1 change of gold price.
1 Micro Lot size = 1 troy ounce, you will have $1 of profit/loss for each $1 change of gold price.

For example of this scenario, let's assume you also have $1.000 capital to invest. The calculation will be as follow:
$1.000 / ($1.750 - $1.550) = $5, which means, for every $1 change of gold price you have to hold $5 loss.
So, if the price go $200 lower, you will loss all your $1.000 capital.
Now with the $5 to spend (or gain) for each $1 price change, it means you can buy at maximum 5 MICRO lots of gold which equal to 5 troy ounces of gold.
Assume that you are right, and gold rises to $1.900, then you will have profit:
5 micro lot x ($1.900 - $1750) = $750 (compare this result to physical investment with the same capital)

3. Trade the gold using leverage
I have to remind you that this is the riskiest level. It means you already enter a trading environment and to do this right, you must have ability and knowledge of being a trader. Start with demo account please.
It is almost the same with my number 2 above. But usually I lift up the lot size because in this trading type, I will make cut losses. Basically, I will allocate 5 to 10 times of my investing lot size for my scalping. The logic is, it is easier to get small pips rather than big pips but it also yields a small profit from small pips. To compensate this, put more lot size. But remember that it could become big losses too.
So, I will only do this when I believe there is a scalping path in the market (see my other posts about my scalping path).
Usually, I also limit my total lot size so that it will not exceed at least my $100 margin endurance. For example, if now the gold price at $1.750, then I have to be able to hold the floating loss at least until gold reach $1.650. But of, course I rarely have to wait until that level because usually I dump my loss position at a little bit lower than a certain strong support (in my opinion) if I believe price will go much lower. Compensating it in the bottom by open buy positions and not sell. If I feel that I can hold my position and believe that the price will be back, I will hold it all.

By trading gold with leverage, you will maximize your profit but also increase your risks.

In Conclusions:
I'm not using the standard MM and RR ratio. This standard rules of, saying 2% risk for each position you open, can be learned from the web. Just googling it.
I'm using my own MM and RR ratio that I adjust to suit my trading style. This is very personal and I don't recommend anyone to just use it as I used to because we may react in different way when facing the loss scenario.
Just make your own rule that suit your trading style, and stick to it.

Good luck....

GG - 2012.11.27  
 
  

Forecast - 2012.11.27

For all yesterday long (my time), gold played in a very narrow path. It looked like the market was reluctant to decide where to go.
I think it was more likely because we didn't have any market mover / big news yesterday, and traders took wait and see position for a significant trigger.
If yesterday it looked like having a freezing chart, I think today (Nov 27, my time) we will have the opposite one.
One thing that I notice from my H4 Chart, gold is still playing around it's 61.8% fibo, that means to me, it still have a potential to go up more than go down. But I still think, IF, gold can go up, it will not be that easy to break the Main Uptrend Resistance (see the other chart below). I think it needs some corrections first before breaking it.

After looking the 2nd H4 Chart, we can see that gold has a very close Resistance Area that consist of 3 resistances, the Red Minor Resistance, the Yellow "Double Agent" Resistance, and the strongest one is the White Main Uptrend Resistance. That's why I have a feeling gold will not pass this resistances area in one single move.
From my other point of view, although it seems not too easy for gold to go up, I still see it is in the uptrend. It seems that gold is regaining the power to bounce up seen from my bouncing zone indicator (special thanks for my mentor, Mr. Henry Nugroho, whom I got this from) and also the 61.8% fibo lines (in the first chart).

The other confirmation for me is from the daily chart below

From my daily chart, it also pretty obvious that gold now has made a perfect Cup and Handle Pattern.
More likely, a rally of an uptrend will follow after this pattern. Of course it might not happen tomorrow since we are using the daily chart. it might happen in longer periods.
We still could have corrections before going up. Remember, I mention that gold has near strong resistances also.

Please keep in mind, this is the market and everything can happen. There is no 100% accuracy even for the best indicator in the world. I am not Fortune Teller with the crystal ball.
BUT as long as I predict using all technical I know, I am seeing an uptrend of gold, at least for weeks ahead, if I can say for days. It will not be too long, in my point of view, before gold has another attempt to break its 2012 high. Of course I also believe that fundamental can play a significant role in defining the coast. So, let's see and update daily and don't forget using good money and risk management will help us to avoid big loss.

Disclaimer:
Everything I say and share here is not to intended to influence any reader to open any position.
This is all about sharing the technical that I know, applied in live market which is still running, in order for you and I to learn together in a live environment. No one knows the result, so don't ever consider me as "must be" 100% right, since I told you I don't know the result yet. The better way to do is analyzing it more with your technical and logic. Anyone MUST responsible for his own position.
So please, do your home-works :D

Good luck...

GG - 2012.11.27

A Review and A Prediction (Part 2) - 2012.11.24

Hi everyone,
Let's continue the journey....

This is the same H4 chart as we saw in the last post, but I add more lines.
As we can see, gold has been closed in the crossing area of my Yellow Line with 1753.5 Resistance.

If my prediction about the market mentality is bullish and the bull power is still big, is correct, then we will have a rising price in the market opening.
But I think that will not be too big, because we have Main Uptrend Resistance at around 1758, and the Blue Resistance at around 1760.
So my best guess is gold will play around 1750 to 1758 / 1760 area in the Sydney and Tokyo session.
For a downside scenario, I think gold will not go lower than 1738, which is used to be a strong resistance area and now acting as support.


THE QUESTION
Predicting what will be happening in market opening is one thing. But trying to figure out what will happen next is another thing and more complex. We have to pay attention to many things.

1) Is it already a valid uptrend, or just another correction before gold dive back downside?
This is the key question for all traders when trying to mapping the chart before making any further positions. This is also an eternal question for me, which I always ask to myself every time gold make a new significant move.

2) If it is a valid uptrend, then until what level gold can go in this short term?
I will not ask for the long term case, or for several years ahead, because the answer is obvious.
A trader concerns about short term. Investor concerns about long term. So, since I want to discuss about trading here, then I have to evaluate everything that concerns about gold short term move.

To answer those question, I will use my favorite tools, simple and yet effective enough, The Fibonacci Retracement. (I will not explain about Fibonacci, please ask uncle Google to learn more about it).
I just want to show you how I use it in my chart.
As we know, the most important lines in Fibo is 23.6, 38.2, 50 and 61.8 percents.
Usually those lines create some good enough resistance function for continuation of the price in the trend or function as a confirmation of trend reversal. Not always, but often. Remember, this is the market. No technical stuff will be 100% exact. So is fibonacci, but I like to use it because its simplicity and accuracy is high enough.

Now, let's find the answer for question number 1.

From this Daily Chart, we can see that gold has been moving from the lowest point at 1527 to the highest at 1795 and then have correction back to 1672.5. After that the price is moving up again. Is it confirmed for continuation?

If we see from fibo, the price at this moment has exceeded the 23.6 fibo level, which meaning for me as a confirmation of the LONG TERM UPTREND CONTINUATION.

Now, try to see from the H4 Chart below.

 

 From the H4 Chart, we can also see that the price at the moment has broken the 61.8 Fibo level (different fibo than daily above), which also means it is almost confirmed as the MEDIUM TERM DOWNTREND REVERSAL (downtrend from 1795 on Oct 5 to 1672 on Nov 5, now it is almost certain making a reversal to the upside)

My conclusion: The confirmations from H4 and D1 from fibonacci retracement is convincing enough that we are seeing an uptrend. Of course, there is never 100% exact for the market, so there is always still a chance that it might be wrong. What do you believe? Do you believe we are in the uptrend at this moment?

Now let's move forward to the final question.
From all of the important level of fibo, I used to give special attention to 38.2 and 50 level that often act as a significant R/S level. Please notice my green arrow in the daily chart and 4H chart above.
Can you see that the 50% fibo act as strong R/S level?
Just take a look of these more charts below:

50% Level of Fibonacci Retracement as the support in M5 Chart

50% Level of Fibonacci Retracement as the Support and also Resistance in M5 Chart

50% Level of Fibonacci Retracement as the Support in H4 Chart

50% Level of Fibonacci Retracement as the Resistance in D1 Chart

Just notice how the 50% Fibonacci level so often be found as the support or the resistance in the chart. Just try to draw by yourself in any random trend and you'll see what I mean.
Now, if we already agree that 50% level of fibo is so often show up in the chart, why don't we use it to predict how much gold will go this time.
But in order not to over predict and get the minimum price level instead of the maximum price, I will use the smaller level of fibonacci, that is 38,2%, not 50% in the prediction.

Assuming that you believe we are most likely in the uptrend and gold will go higher until price level H and then retrace back to the resistance at price level R. Now let's define R level first.

Now, look at the steps below:

Step 1: Suppose that I take 1738 as the most strongest support for this short time when retracement happen later after this next uptrend ends. Just draw that support on the chart. (I use 4H chart)

Step 2: Draw your Fibonacci Retracement so that the 38.2% level is overlapping with your Resistance.
Step 3: Take the price figure at 0% level of your Fibo as the result of the  your prediction. In this case, it is at 1778.30. That means that we are expecting the gold to go to 1778 area to make this uptrend completed and then has a correction down to 1738. We're doing that using a technical tool that historically proven to be right many times. So, it is not a random prediction.

See, it is not too difficult to make a prediction using a simple tool as Fibonacci Retracement, right? :D
Now, you look like a Pro, don't you? LOL

Ok, let's go back to the business. It's not finish yet.
In the sample above I use 38.2% level instead of 50%. If we use the 50%, we will get the higher result.
In this case, if you and I believe that 1738 is the most likely to be the support when gold has retrace back later after this uptrend happen, then gold must go to more than 1800 this time to have 1738 as the support if we use 50% level of fibo in this prediction.
It is up to you what level of Fibo to use. What I share in this post is the most simplest technique yet effective.

Overall conclusion of my insight for gold at short term:
Yes, I believe we are in the uptrend.
It is big possibility we will see the next attempt from gold to break the 2012 highest before the years end.

Disclaimer:
This is the longest post I ever make just to share what I'm doing in predicting the market with hope it will help many trader especially newbies out there.
Always keep in mind, I AM NOT a professional adviser, nor a true god. I make mistake along the way, and that is the way I learn.
So, please don't take everything RAW. Use your own logic to analyze before taking any position.
Have a strict money and risk management for your own sake.

Good luck everyone. Have a blessed day...

GG - 2012.11.25

A Review and A Prediction (Part 1) - 2012.11.24

Hi everyone,

Yesterday was a "Regretful" Friday. I believe many of us has regrets.
No matter you made profit or suffered a loss, right?
For those who suffered loss, it is obvious what their regrets for. But funny thing is, those who got profit also regret why they put a TP so close and got small profit when they should had have a huge one, am I right?
LOL :D
Don't worry, yesterday was not a doom day. We still have trading chance next week.

Let's review gold market.

Having a look at my H4 chart above, I can say that gold has TWO Main Uptrends.
The uptrend now become more obvious since the gold seems to change its main path support (white one) to the purple line (see the chart, the bottom one). If this is what we really get here, it means pretty clear the bull is in the game right now. Maybe it's still to early to conclude since next week I believe we will have big volatility and price can go wilder than yesterday (last Friday), whether it's up or down.
IF gold can't go lower than the purple support and bounce back upside, then we can actually say that the new uptrend path is valid and we will have faster bull plays in the arena.
I even have a feeling that gold will directly go higher on Monday without going down first. I'll write the reason for it later.
For other side, IF gold can break the purple support, we can't automatically say it is making a downtrend, since gold is still playing in the old main uptrend path, which is between the white R/S.

Another interesting here is that we have a "double agent". Sometimes it plays as support and the other times it acts as resistance. See my yellow line in the chart, typed as Support + Resistance. That's why I draw that yellow line an give a credit for it as it may have a significant role in the future.
I also mentioned in my post last night that gold probably closed not higher than 1753.5, and as we can see, that's true. I said that because I saw a minor resistance at 1753.5 which would cross the yellow line, and now we can see that the cross is exactly be the place where the gold stopped.

But I also made a wrong prediction last night. I thought, as nature calls for Friday, there would be a weaken move, but it didn't happen.
To discuss it details, we have to zoom to my M5 chart below

Now, just notice several things from this zoom view:
1) I expected that gold would go a little bit down from profit taking or cutting losses from traders that do not want to take risks for next week as usually happen on Friday. That's why I said it might be between 1740-1750. BUT, it didn't happen as expected. Gold was closed at strengthen condition. This gives me more reason to think that market mentality is very bullish. It showed that the bull pushing power was still there, especially when it happened on Friday night. This is also the reason why I say at the beginning of this post, that I have a feeling gold will moving up without first making correction on Monday.
2) Price has just stopped at the right place where my resistances existed. I think the market respect those resistances, so we can use both that lines (Yellow and Red, see the chart) as a reference to  predict gold's next move.

Now, we are moving forward trying to predict what will happen next week.
But I'm truly sorry, I don't have any time to make posts at this moment. I gotta go.
My next post needs many chart, and that will take much time. I'll try to post it later. Just check my blog before Sunday night (my time, GMT+7) if you want to know.

Have a nice weekend....

GG - 2012.11.24