Forecast - 2013.01.31

Gold was able to break the blue resistance (EMA160@M30 Chart) and as I expected in my last post, the bull is back into the arena, and this might have something to do with the bad US GDP as the trigger.

And for the FOMC Statement (BB Speech), just exactly as I guessed before, no important thing announced, no change at all, just routine. QE still continue and the federal rate is still as low as before. That's why I didn't consider last FOMC as important thing to mention in my last posts.

Now, let's see and figure out where the gold would go.

From the above 4H Chart, an important thing to note is that white support at the bottom can be considered as a strong support. Gold bounced back exactly to my brown separating line between the Upper Path and the Lower Path.

The question is, where it would go from here?
Seeing that we still have 2 important event left for this week, which is US Unemployment and NFP, I think at least we have to pay attention to those event, with the most important is NFP, which can be a trigger to the next step of gold price. At least, this is if we want to make fundamental into consideration, which in my opinion, the NFP should be counted.

From the technical point of view, gold is reaching the resistance area above the brown separating paths line. Most likely gold will make a really narrow move around this level, waiting the trigger to move. Since it already touch the resistance area, technically I rather say that the bear has better chance than the bull. In other words, it is easier for gold to go down than to go up.
But in case that gold can make its way up, I think it will not be very far, the most is up to the brown Main Trend Resistance (1694-1695). If later the NFP turns out to be far worse than expected, than it might trigger gold further north. Possibly it will go to the White Resistance (1705). The move beyond those 2 resistances will be considered by me as the real bullish trend.Means reversal to the uptrend confirmed.
For the downside preview, if gold goes south, I think it will not break the white support yet (1655). That is the farthest in my opinion right now. But if it could break the white support, it will enter the short term buying area which mean it might be a reversal to the upside in that area (between the White and Brown Support lines).

Now let's see the big picture from this daily chart.
If we pay attention to the Main R/S, it's very obvious that gold is making a pennant pattern which will have to be broken soon, at most around Feb 20 when that Main R/S meets. And many times, a break from the pennant can cause a rally. I don't know if this time gold will have a significant breakout. I also don't know yet if gold will go up or down. Let's see for some more days ahead what will happen to the market. Just get ready for a rally....

Good luck.

GG - 2013.01.31

Forecast - 2013.01.29

Gold went down as I predicted in the last post. It didn't have chance to touch my resistance area first before going down. I expected it would be held around my separating brown line between Upper and Lower area, but it went directly to the white support and then bounce back to the north a little bit.
From this H4 chart we can see that the market still respects the white support. But seeing that the bear power was so strong, honestly I have a feeling that the bear is not finished yet.
Let's see through another point of view

This is the M30 chart with Breakout and MA indicators.
This afternoon (my time, it is now almost midnight when I type this) the Breakout and MA indicators indicated an up move. But I doubt it can continue to the north because the price is already touch the 160EMA as my daily resistance. Besides, gold is already between the Resistance 2 and 3 in the Breakout indicator with the Pivot line under the box area. Means to me a bad signal for Long position although the Breakout gives a Buy signal.

In this contradictory condition, better wait for a clearer confirmation. Honestly, I don't have a clear clue in this current price. More likely gold will make a really narrow sideways and waiting for more bull / bear power.
If it can break the 160EMA (blue MA line) or even more break the Resistance 3, I think the bull will  back into the game. In the contrary, if gold goes back down below the pivot level, we might have 1640-1650 area in sight.

Trade well and good luck.

GG - 2013.01.29

Forecast - 2013-01.22

Until today, gold is still moving in the Upper Path. That means it's already more than a week gold stays in this path.

Looking at the daily chart above, we can see that the chart will soon meet the Brown Resistance which is the Main Trend Resistance. If gold can break that brown resistance line, it means that we will have a new uptrend confirmed. It is not impossible gold will make its way, up to its last highest at 1795 area.
Even though, I think that will not happen soon enough.
In my opinion, more likely gold will have correction when it meets the brown resistance.
Let's zoom in to H4 chart below.

It's pretty obvious that gold reluctantly moves sideways with upside tendency in my upper path / yellow channel. If this movement continues this way, then it will soon meet a strong resistance area, which is the intersection area between the brown and the white line. I think that will be a very strong resistance area and gold will not make its way to the north in one pass only. I think, gold will have to push several times before it succeed to break the resistant wall. In this context, gold might have some correction down to the yellow support.
(But in term that gold successfully break the resistance area and go north, it might be heading to 1795 in one or two months).
The most likely to happen in some days ahead is a sideways move between 1680 - 1697.

Let's wait and see...

Be careful and trade well.

GG - 2012.01.23

Forecast - 2013.01.17

I think gold is still moving in the predicted direction as my previous posts. It still plays mostly in my upper path area. Although gold had went down because the good (green) US data (unemployment and housing start) but it went back up directly in the next 4H bar, also because fundamental (bad / red US data - Philly Fed Manufacturing). In this case, fundamental did nothing to the direction but widen the volatility only.

In this 4H chart, we can notice that gold is also moving in an uptrend channel (between yellow lines).
I think this yellow path will continue for several days ahead and will be a good scalping path. At least, from my experience in gold market, I guess gold will go down one or two more times to the yellow support and goes back up to the yellow resistance before breaking this temporary yellow path and make a new one. Of course, please do not take this as the "must-be-happened" prediction. Always open position with your own trading management.
Let's wait and see.

Happy trading.

GG - 2013.01.17

Forecast - 2013.01.16

Gold didn't have too much volatility today. As expected it's been playing around the brown line, a little bit in the upper side area.
As mentioned in yesterday post, I think gold is beginning to make a new sideways area, more likely in my upper path area, and make the brown line as the support line.
From the daily chart above, it is clear to see that gold is making a new trend path, which is an upside tendency sideways. I divide this new path into 2 paths, Upper path and Lower path.

This is what I think as the first alternative and the most likely to happen in my opinion.

Gold will move to the White Resistance Line but probably will have strong resistance area around 1698-1705. I believe, if gold can go into that area, it will not easily continue its journey to the north but must struggle several times to pass that area. And there is a big probability gold will have a deep correction back to current path if it can't penetrate that resistance area.

The second alternative is that the brown line will become the pivot line for several days (or maybe weeks) ahead.

In this scenario, I believe gold will move up and down around the middle brown line as the pivot line. We need to wait two or three days more to have the confirmation if this is what will happen.

The last scenario is the less likely to happen but still have chance is the downside scenario. If gold move back to the lower path and break the white support, then I think it will play in the intersection area which I called a good buying area in my past posts. I believe this scenario has a very small chance to happen.

Happy Trading....

GG - 2013.01.16

For My Personal Note:
Breakout and BOZ confirmed in XAU today. But only got 350 pips because it was too close with the SMA, and also it had a collision with my brown line. So, I only took 350 pips.

Till today still got 100% profit, but must find something to improve the OP timing, because at the moment got to break some rules to make profit. If I follow it by the book, today would surely be a loss day.
The result until today:

Forecast - 2013.01.15

Gold is making a sideways these last several day in my lower path as I predicted. But today it seems that gold is beginning to break the brown resistance. I guess it will make a new sideways path area, which more likely is in my upper path area.
I think gold will continue a little bit upside to maximum 1698-1705 area in several days ahead, probably in this week, but I guess it will not make a significant jump. I even think gold will have some attempts first before able to continue its journey to the north. In other words, I still think the area between 1698 - 1705 will be a good resistance area for gold.
In case gold has retracement, I think it will not be any lower than the bottom white support of the lower path, most likely, the brown separation line between the upper and lower area will become the new support for some days ahead.
Just use your own consideration before making any position.

Good luck and have a nice profitable trading.

GG - 2013.01.15

Forecast - 2013.01.12

Gold has a significant correction, more than $20 drop today, just as exactly as I predicted in my last forecast post (2013.01.10)
Although there is still a possibility that gold might go a little bit south, but I think it ill not be too far.
The intersection between the white support and the brown support still be a good buying area because I think gold will not go lower than the brown support.
It even clearer to me from the daily chart above that gold is making a sideways with an upside tendency.
I expect gold will play between my brown resistance and white support for some days ahead before deciding where to go.
I'm still bullish for long term and expecting that this white support will be the bouncing foundation line for the price to go up.
Let's wait and see next weekend.

Good luck.

GG - 2012.01.12

Go to School before Wasting any Money...

Actually this post is meant to be my personal note for my trading journal.

For the last 3 months, I take an official training from one of forex education institution at Jakarta. (I'm sorry, I can't mention the name here since I don't want to break my own policy: "No Promotion" in my blog.)
I got very valuable indicators from the tutors. A Breakout and a Bounce of Zone system. Special thanks for all my tutor.
From my own experience, those are very good indicators. I practiced them for a month and got a 100% accurate and profitable trading. This is my result:

Of course I believe it is not that perfect. It's only a coincidence that I got a 100% profit for this last month, because I believe there is no perfect indicator that will win forever in forex world. But still, those are very good indicators to help me open positions. It's just too bad I got all that after wasting thousands dollar in trading.

What I want to share here, especially for newbies, just go to some professional institution (I mean the real ones, not the one that only want your money and teach you garbage), LEARN!! Then build your own traders community before throwing all your money doing trials and errors in the real world. Surely, you will pay the tuition, but in my case, I would happily pay them double or triple or even more, to get what I got now. There is no free lunch, I believe.

I want to stress it once more, I am not selling anything here, I am not a marketing of any institution, so I'm truly sorry, I will not answer any question asking about what is the institution I learn all of these from.

I believe if you have determination to be succeed in forex trading, you will find your way.

PS:  sorry I can't share these indicators in any of my posting in any time because this has something to do with ethics. These are not mine and I can't give anyone what is not mine.

GG - 2013.01.11

Forecast - 2013.01.10

Gold moves as predicted in my last post to my TP area at 1670-1680.
I think gold will have correction a bit before continue. More likely it will move between the white support and the brown resistance.
In other words, I take my long position profit at current price and stay away for a while, waiting the correction to enter another long. Although I'm bullish, I still believe gold will not break 1700 in several days ahead.

Looking at the daily chart above, I think the market still respect the white support which means gold is probably will bounce upside. Of course it will take weeks because we use daily time frame here.

For the downside scenario, if gold can break the white support, then it will once again enter the good buying area, at least from my opinion. If that happens, I think the brown support will not be broken easily.

Good luck and have a nice trading...

GG - 2013.01.10

Forecast - 2013.01.07

Hello everyone,
Happy New Year 2013. Wishing you all the best in this new year.
Just got back from long vacation and and now back to the business....

Gold dropped significantly at the end of 2012. It seemed like everyone needed some cash for vacation and sold the gold :D

From the daily chart above, gold is still moving in the downtrend path, but it looks like gold is well supported by the brown support area and beginning to make a sideways.
At the beginning of this year, gold had a gap which I thought it would make a break upside, but it turned out to be a false signal. It went down again.
Let's look at my other daily chart below.

I get a feeling that for some days ahead, gold will move sideways in the white-shaded area.
I still think that the intersection between the white and brown lines still a good buying area with SL just a little bit below the brown support (+/- 1620 area) and the TP around 1670-1680 (around the brown resistance).

But as always, please use your own analysis. Never trade based on other's opinion including me.

Good luck.

GG - 2013.01.07