And for the FOMC Statement (BB Speech), just exactly as I guessed before, no important thing announced, no change at all, just routine. QE still continue and the federal rate is still as low as before. That's why I didn't consider last FOMC as important thing to mention in my last posts.
Now, let's see and figure out where the gold would go.
From the above 4H Chart, an important thing to note is that white support at the bottom can be considered as a strong support. Gold bounced back exactly to my brown separating line between the Upper Path and the Lower Path.
The question is, where it would go from here?
Seeing that we still have 2 important event left for this week, which is US Unemployment and NFP, I think at least we have to pay attention to those event, with the most important is NFP, which can be a trigger to the next step of gold price. At least, this is if we want to make fundamental into consideration, which in my opinion, the NFP should be counted.
From the technical point of view, gold is reaching the resistance area above the brown separating paths line. Most likely gold will make a really narrow move around this level, waiting the trigger to move. Since it already touch the resistance area, technically I rather say that the bear has better chance than the bull. In other words, it is easier for gold to go down than to go up.
But in case that gold can make its way up, I think it will not be very far, the most is up to the brown Main Trend Resistance (1694-1695). If later the NFP turns out to be far worse than expected, than it might trigger gold further north. Possibly it will go to the White Resistance (1705). The move beyond those 2 resistances will be considered by me as the real bullish trend.Means reversal to the uptrend confirmed.
For the downside preview, if gold goes south, I think it will not break the white support yet (1655). That is the farthest in my opinion right now. But if it could break the white support, it will enter the short term buying area which mean it might be a reversal to the upside in that area (between the White and Brown Support lines).
If we pay attention to the Main R/S, it's very obvious that gold is making a pennant pattern which will have to be broken soon, at most around Feb 20 when that Main R/S meets. And many times, a break from the pennant can cause a rally. I don't know if this time gold will have a significant breakout. I also don't know yet if gold will go up or down. Let's see for some more days ahead what will happen to the market. Just get ready for a rally....
Good luck.
GG - 2013.01.31
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