Forecast - 2013.11.30

A CONTRADICTION

Gold is making a confusing situation for me to guess where it is going to head.

In H1 chart, it is obvious that 1255 is a resistance area which the current price probably will make Three Tops pattern if it can't go through higher. Just check the H1 chart below.

But then, there are some contradictory clues, which are seen in the Daily chart below:

From the daily chart, there are at least 3 clues that contradicts the H1 chart which is probably making Three Tops pattern (sign of bearish). There are:
1. Price already broke the daily resistance
2. There is a Higher Low, indicates that probably gold is making a new path to the upside
3. My daily WPR and RSI are probably making a golden cross, which I usually use in daily chart as a confirmation for an uptrend.

Conclusion:
I prefer to guess the bear is not finish yet, since there is no support from the fundamental for the bull.
As long as the price not making a Higher High, which is breaking above 1258, I still hold for the bear.
We'll see soon if my guess is correct or wrong.

GG - 2013.11.30

Personal Note - The Result

This is the result of last prediction.
Total gain = 2 positions @ 1.005 pips

GG - 2013 11 27

Forecast - 2013.11.27

From daily chart, there is an obvious downtrend path with the perfect R/S as the boundary.
But it is also clearly seen that the bearish always be rejected by the support 1 line.
There is 2 alternatives in my view.
Alt 1, the bear wins the fight. In this case, gold must break Support 1 line and  then it might continue follow the downtrend path.
Alt 2, gold breaks the resistance and makes a new uptrend path. In this case, gold must break the resistance line first. The question is, will there be enough power to support the bull? I doubt it.
Looking the fundamental base nowadays, the most likely to happen, at least from my view, is that gold will go once more to around resistance level and then go back down.
Let's see the hourly chart below.

I think gold will bounce back to the resistance area before trying to go lower since there is a support line (Support 1) that seems to be respected by the market and also the oversold condition at the moment.
But I really doubt that gold can go further up since the fundamental situation seems does not support it.
So, in this moment, I guess the best trade is to have short around the resistance area as seen in the H1 chart.
Of course as usual, get the disclaimer on.

Good luck....

GG - 2013 11 27

Forecast - 2013.11.06

ANOTHER DIVERGENCE...!!!

At this moment we have a bullish divergence. William Percent Range and MACD indicators, both show bullish divergence.
The last time bearish divergence existed, it worked. Will it work now???
We will see soon.


AT SUPPORT LINES???

Gold goes back to its previous path, or from another point of view, it might be a beginning of a new path. Who cares?
But wait a minute, look closely!
From both points of view, the price might be near a support level. Technically it has bigger opportunity to move away from the support, right? Hahaha.... that's only an assumption. No one knows where will it go.
Let's take a closer look of the daily chart.

Yes, it might form many higher highs and lows from this view.
It also performs a Morning Star and (almost certain) Bullish Engulfing.

Ok then, I think gold has more chance to go up than down.
To what level? I suppose the key area would be the area between the blue and red resistances. Will it break that area or will it bounce back down? Let's wait and see....


Uhmm, wait a second. There will be Advanced GDP and NFP soon. I think it will have big influence of gold price. Take care and have SL and MM as your safety device. Have a nice trading.

GG - 2013.11.06

PS: Disclaimer always on!!!

Result Noted

Just for personal record

Strong Resistances

Divergence