Forecast - 2013.11.27

From daily chart, there is an obvious downtrend path with the perfect R/S as the boundary.
But it is also clearly seen that the bearish always be rejected by the support 1 line.
There is 2 alternatives in my view.
Alt 1, the bear wins the fight. In this case, gold must break Support 1 line and  then it might continue follow the downtrend path.
Alt 2, gold breaks the resistance and makes a new uptrend path. In this case, gold must break the resistance line first. The question is, will there be enough power to support the bull? I doubt it.
Looking the fundamental base nowadays, the most likely to happen, at least from my view, is that gold will go once more to around resistance level and then go back down.
Let's see the hourly chart below.

I think gold will bounce back to the resistance area before trying to go lower since there is a support line (Support 1) that seems to be respected by the market and also the oversold condition at the moment.
But I really doubt that gold can go further up since the fundamental situation seems does not support it.
So, in this moment, I guess the best trade is to have short around the resistance area as seen in the H1 chart.
Of course as usual, get the disclaimer on.

Good luck....

GG - 2013 11 27