Forecast - 2013.09.22

HOW LOW THE BEAR CAN GO?

After having a significant jump on Thursday, right after FOMC, gold has been plunged almost 4,400 pips.
Although I have predicted that gold could not go higher than 1375 because the Resistance was  obviously very strong (R/S Lines and Fibo, see my previous post), but I also didn't expect that gold would dive that far so quick.
Luckily, I have anticipated the move, I still could take profit.
Now, let's see the eternal question that always pops up everyday, where the gold will go next?

From H4 Chart, we can see that gold has touched 61,8% fibo and went up a bit before it closed.

Zooming to H1, we can see that the last bar formed a very small pinbar.
Although this is not a very clear sign of reversal, I think we also can't ignore this. I suspect gold down move can be restrained around this area.
But to say that it will go up or down, we need more confirmation.
If I have to guess, I think gold more likely to go up than to go down. Let's see tomorrow.

Let's see one more chart.
I put the previous Fibonacci (originally used to measure the spike last Thursday), we also can see that gold closed exactly at the 23,6% Fibo.
That was an interesting "coincident".
Or is it a sign? :)




My conclusion:
More likely gold will not go lower and possibly it'll go a little bit upside.
Disclaimer on.

GG - 2013.09.22

Forecast - 2013.09.20

HOW FAR THE BULL WILL GO?

Last FOMC yesterday (Thursday, Sep 19, 2013), The Fed announced that they maintain QE and didn't do the tapering. As the result all pairs moved significantly and gold also jumped instantly.
The question is, to what level?
At the time I write this forecast, gold is running around 1372.
Let's try to analyze gold move.

Daily Chart No. 1
Analyzing tools: Fibo and Trend Line
Look at the daily chart no.1
It is interesting to see today that gold's daily move is limited by the Resistance that also acts as previous Uptrend Support (blue line).
As we can see, the gold's stuck exactly by 2 significant technical tools that is 61,8% Fibonacci Lines and R/S Lines.


Daily Chart No. 2
Analyzing tools: the same as no. 1 (Fibo and Trend Line)

Actually, this is not the right way to use Fibo for current moves. This fibo is used to measure the previous downtrend. But I like to show you the interesting fact that by using the previous fibo, we can see that gold uptrend moves is also restrain exactly by 23,6% Fibo lines that cross exactly with the trend lines (blue lines).


Daily Chart No. 3
Analyzing tools: Chart Pattern

By the time I capture this chart, there is still 3,5 hours left to complete this daily bar. It's interesting to guess, whether today bar will be a Pinbar (Evening Star) pattern, or will it be able breaking through all the resistances (Fibo and trendline, as no. 1+2 above)



M5 Chart

Look at the Light Grey box at the upper side of the chart.
From this M5 Chart, we can see that gold has been trying 4 times to break the resistance area (grey area), which also the same level as Fibo in no.1 and no.2 above.
Interesting isn't it?


My conclusion:
There are 2 alternatives.
1. Gold fails to break this Resistance Area and going down a little bit. If this happens, I don't think gold will drop much since we already know that tapering is cancelled for this moment and there is no certainty when the Fed will start tapering. So, I believe gold won't go all the way down in the short time.
2. Gold manages to break the resistance. Then the next resistance area will be around 1385-1390. I doubt it will go further than that for this week.

For me, the most possible scenario is that gold will make a sideways move between 1360 and 1375 area.
I will trade tick-tack between this area, buying at support and selling at resistance. Just beware if the price manages to break this temporary area. If that happens, just switching the position and get along with the breakout.

As usual, please keep in mind that this is only my prediction. Do not trade based on my prediction only because I do mistakes too. Disclaimer on.

Good luck.

GG - 2013.09.20