This is my gold analysis for today.
From the 4H chart we can see a very clear uptrend from the end of August until mid of September. Then gold made a sideway move that confirmed by a break of its uptrend around Sep 21.
In that sideway move, I noted 3 times gold tried to break upside but it failed. And once it made a false downside breakout on Sep 26. Honestly, at the time gold pull back to the upside that quickly, I thought it would break much higher and continue go to more than 1800. But it didn't. It just made a new high for 2012 around 1795.85.
Then gold made a downtrend with a confirmation of breaking the sideway area on Monday Oct 15.
At that time I expected gold would go at most to 1690-1700 area. In this area gold had a strong support of 38,2% Fibo, psychology support, and a complete cup n handel pattern.
Now as we can see from the chart, gold is trying to start breaking its downtrend move by making a sideway.
Is it a confirmation of a sideway or a downtrend breaking?
Maybe it's to early to tell because we need some more time to really confirm the move.
But there are many things come into my consideration:
1) It's almost November, a bullish seasonal month of gold for 30 years.
2) Gold has been already in 1698-1718 area since Oct 23, which means almost 2 weeks. And as long as I see it now, the longer it stays in an area, the bigger the chance of making reversal.
3) US Election. If Obama wins, I'm almost sure gold will be going up. But if Romney wins, there is a possibility it will go down a little more.
That's all what I can say now about gold for the short term.
Of course as I always say, don't take it RAW. Use your own consideration on trading.
Happy profitable trading....
GG 2012.10.30
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